It has been a good year for precious metals but not a great one as the leveraged side has underperformed. Gold has gained 28% yet has outperformed Silver and the gold and silver stocks which are up less than 20% on the year.
With the stock market still in a secular bull market, there is not enough capital or interest in precious metals outside of Gold.
Although the gold stocks have disappointed, they are in position for an explosive breakout in 2025.
By the time GDX and XAU rally back to recent highs, they will be working on 5-year bullish bases.
XGD, which is essentially the Canadian GDX, is sporting a gigantic, 14-year base.
The gold stocks are sporting very bullish bases at a time when they are extremely underowned.
The chart below plots the assets of gold miner ETFs relative to the assets of all stock ETFs.
The current market share of gold miner ETFs is very close to a 17-year low. It is down roughly 80% from the end of 2011 peak and even down over 50% from the August 2020 peak.
For more capital to move into precious metals and spill over to the gold stocks, the economy must roll over into a recession, forcing the Fed to resume its easing.
The market is currently only discounting one rate cut in the next 13 months.
The vertical lines in the chart mark the start of Fed rate cut cycles.
The steepening of the Yield Curve is needed for Gold to outperform the stock market and capital to shift away from conventional assets.
The setup in the gold stocks is very bullish. They are trading within big bullish bases at a time when they are incredibly underowned.
Once the macro picture aligns, and that entails an economic downturn with accelerated Fed easing, the gold stocks will explode out of their bases.
It is best to position in the quality companies that will lead the move to a breakout. You can buy some of them 20% to 30% cheaper than just a few months ago.
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