CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:34 p.m. EST 16 January 2025 $2,748.60 (Basis the February 2025 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $2,800
Initial Timeframe: 16 January 2025 to 31 January 2025
Stop Loss: $2,720
Gold prices have been rising overall since recently bottoming out at $2,596.70 on 19 December. Prices are within reach of the record high of $2,801.80 touched on 30 October 2025. The increase in prices reflects buying by institutional investors and, more importantly, investor buying related to concerns about the political and economic outlook for the United States and the rest of the world in 2025. There also has been rising speculation that President Trump might impose prohibitive tariffs on imports that could include gold and silver.
Prices are expected to continue to rise for a couple days, at least. New York has a holiday on Monday while London will remain open. Trump’s inauguration will be Monday as well, and he has promised, or threatened, to issue many executive orders. Speculators think some might include those tariffs.
Gold prices could surge to $2,800 or higher while silver prices could spike toward $33.00, $33.50, or more. There is potential for this to occur in the very short term, meaning that over the next few days.
The gold Comex February contract becomes deliverable at the end of January and many market participants are rolling their February positions into future months, mostly the April Comex contract. As of 15 January there were 28.2 million ounces of open interest in the February Comex contract while there were 17.2 million ounces of open interest in the April Comex contract. With around two weeks left in January, there remains scope for prices to continue to rise as market participants close out their February positions and buy April positions. Total open interest was 53.8 million ounces as of 15 January, up sharply from 45.9 million ounces at the end of December. The large increase in open interest and rise in prices suggests long positioning overall.
There also is a heavy volume of arbitrage occurring between London and New York. Some bullion dealers actually were buying London metal and moving it to New York. As the spread widened, speculative market participants were buying London and selling New York. If the London market grows particularly tight, London prices would rise sharply, reversing the price differential with New York. This price spread reversal would lead to a reversal of the flow of silver, out of New York back toward London.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
