Feb 4, 2025
- It seems surreal that Donald Trump has been in office for only two weeks. That’s because the amount of excitement he’s generated so far… is already more than most presidents generate in an entire four-year term.
The world was shocked by the 25% tariff taxes he levied on America’s two closest neighbours… and even more shocked when the taxes were removed almost as fast as they were applied.
Socialist media like CNN are claiming that the president “blinked”. Is their assertion correct? Yes, but not for reasons mentioned by left-wing media.
- Marco Rubio is fast becoming Trump’s right-hand man and on Sunday he secured concrete concessions from the Panamanian government on immigration and canal security. That’s not what happens when the US government blinks.
- Yesterday, “The Donald” himself secured major border security concessions from Mexico and Canada.
- There’s no question that America had the upper hand in the negotiations with Panama, Mexico, and Canada. So, where is the US government’s blink?
Well, for the answer to this key question. Double-click to enlarge this vital US stock market chart. A major double top, an end to the bull market, and the potential 1929 or 1966 wipeout were all pretty much a “done deal”… before Trump killed the tariffs and the Panama invasion.
- Now the market has a month of breathing room and money managers can focus on the positive aspects of the Trump agenda.
- Also, it can be argued that compared to tariff taxes imposed on Mexico and Canada, those imposed on Europe would be less negative (and perhaps even a net positive!) for the US markets. The bottom line: At this point in time, new US stock market highs are as likely as a swoon.
Sadly, Trump and his entourage would likely need to enact policy that generates GDP growth of 8%+ to reduce the horrifying overvaluation of the US stock market.
- Given the US empire’s late stage, fiat orientation, and relatively small population compared to China and India, that’s a very difficult task to undertake, let alone achieve.
- The only other way to reduce the overvaluation is of course with a major bear market in the indexes and most stocks.
Double-click to enlarge this enticing daily gold chart. What’s particularly interesting about gold is that it barely recoiled when the reduction in tariffs and invasion risk was announced.
- That’s the sign of a very strong market, and of course throughout world history, gold has been the strongest and greatest asset for investors and regular citizens to hold!
Double-click to enlarge this stunning weekly chart. The lead Stochastics (14,5,5 series) line is now overbought but the target of the beautiful symmetrical triangle is $3000+. Stochastics likely stays overbought while the price moves nicely higher.
- From 2020-2023 gold consolidated while rates soared. Then gold soared in 2024 (and into 2025) while rates consolidated. It’s unknown what happens to rates next but what can be said is that the “Trumpian Tidal Wave” is upsetting many global socialist “apple carts”, and investors are seeking both the minor safe haven of US fiat… and the major one of gold!
Double-click to enlarge this CDNX daily chart. Will the sixth time be a charm? I think so, and the huge reversal bar yesterday and the momentum zone buy signal for 14,7,7 series Stochastics suggests it could happen by the end of this week.
- While GDX, GDXJ, SGDM, and SGDJ are staging fantastic rallies from my Jan 1 buy zone, it’s really the CDNX that highlights just how much money manager interest in the gold stocks there truly is…. and a surge through 630 is likely to be accompanied with a wave of institutional buying that hasn’t occurred for many years.
For a look at GDX. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular weekly chart. The massive C&H action suggests that a 5%-10% move higher for gold (to $3000-$3200) could be accompanied with a 50% surge for GDX!
- There’s still a lot of room for Stochastics to move higher before reaching the overbought zone.
- Also, note the fantastic MACD buy signal that occurred yesterday… keeping in mind that this is a weekly chart that carries much more “technical weight” than a daily one.
- It can be argued that the handle of the cup is not a traditional rectangular drift but an outrageously bullish wedge… and the action of the oscillators suggests investors should give this scenario serious consideration.
- Gold is the beacon for the miners, and it’s pointing to much higher prices. The Trumpian “America First” tidal wave is going to bring capital to America. That’s going to put upwards pressure on interest rates, which is negative for the ridiculously overvalued stock market.
- Gold, silver, and the miners thrived during a similar situation in the 1970s, especially as “growflation” morphed into stagflation. The weekly GDX chart is currently the most important chart for investors to focus on, so they have an awesome day… and a golden year!
Thanks!
Cheers
