Bitcoin continues to experience what appears to be price suppression, despite clear signs of accumulation by institutional investors and large trading groups. The price briefly broke through the first resistance fan line but was rejected at $99K, leading to a slightly lower low.
However, 4-hour RSI painted a higher low, a potential sign of underlying strength. On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains at support, though it is still trending downward.
Daily Chart Reflects Strong Hands Holding BTC
The daily chart for BTC illustrates a market where whales appear to be attempting to drive the price lower, yet Bitcoin continues to hold its ground. This ongoing grind downward is hurting altcoins more significantly, as they are more susceptible to sell-offs during periods of stagnation. No clear test on daily RSI has occurred yet, which remains a key technical indicator to watch for any sign of a turnaround.
Ethereum Faces Resistance But Holds Key Support Levels
Ethereum was also rejected at resistance yesterday, both in terms of price action and OBV. However, 4-hour RSI suggests that ETH may be preparing for a move higher. ETH retraced to TBO Support on the 4-hour chart, which is an encouraging sign, though confirmation of a stronger trend is still needed. Importantly, ETH has not made a lower low on the daily time frame, reinforcing the case that it may be in the process of forming a bottom.
Market Sentiment Shaken, But Downtrend Feels Exhausted
Despite holding onto profits from earlier dip buys, the market’s continued grind lower is frustrating for traders. The extended bearish movement seems more like forced selling than organic weakness. ETH, in particular, remains extremely oversold, now sitting 13% below its daily TBO Fast Line. A relief rally is long overdue, but the lack of positive catalysts from Ethereum’s leadership has not helped investor confidence.
Stablecoin Dominance Shows Weakness, but BTC Dominance Continues Rising
Stablecoin dominance recently flashed a bearish divergence signal at TBO Resistance, signaling a potential reversal lower. However, daily RSI for stablecoin dominance made a new high yesterday, suggesting that fear remains present in the market.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) pushed higher, with daily RSI moving up to 82.56 and weekly RSI now firmly above 70. This suggests that BTC dominance may continue to rise, limiting the chances for a strong altcoin rally in the near term.
Altcoin Dominance Struggles to Recover
Top 10 Dominance continues to decline, with daily RSI now deeply oversold at 18.49. Historically, this has been a sign of further weakness rather than an immediate reversal. The 4-hour chart has yet to provide any indication of an imminent bounce. OTHERS dominance, representing the broader altcoin market, also remains under pressure, with daily RSI closing at 20.35. While this is slightly above the January 28th low, it still reflects significant selling pressure.
Altcoin Market Cap Still Holding Despite Declining RSI
OTHERS market cap painted a lower daily RSI reading yesterday, but support levels are still holding. The broader altcoin market remains fragile, with slow, grinding losses discouraging bullish momentum. However, BVOL7D, a key volatility indicator, is expected to turn around soon, potentially providing a catalyst for altcoin recovery.
Traditional Finance Markets Show No Signs of Weakness
There is no clear indication from TradFi markets that would justify the ongoing crypto weakness. In fact, major stock indices had a strong day, which undercuts the idea that external macroeconomic fears are responsible for Bitcoin and altcoin declines. Given the broader market strength, the continued crypto sell-off looks more like a coordinated effort by large entities than a natural market reaction.
Sticking to the Plan in a Volatile Q1
Despite the ongoing volatility, the broader outlook remains intact. BTC is still expected to reach a new all-time high around $173K in November. Altcoins will follow Bitcoin’s lead, but the path remains rocky. The first quarter of 2025 has proven to be far more turbulent than expected, but the long-term trend remains bullish.
For traders navigating this uncertainty, the five rules from The Better Traders Journal are more important than ever:
1. Create a trading plan from start to finish.
2. Follow the trading plan.
3. Do not use more than 10% of the portfolio per trade.
4. Protect the portfolio at all costs.
5. Be satisfied with any amount of profit.
Patience remains key. The current chop-solidation phase will eventually end, and when it does, those who have stuck to their plan will be best positioned to take advantage of the next major move higher.
