Gold hits historic high amid escalating trade tensions

Kitco Media
By Gary Wagner
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Gold prices surged to a new all-time record of $2,938.10 today, driven by mounting concerns over President Trump's expanding tariff policies. As of 3:15 PM EST, the most active April futures contract settled at $2,934.30, representing a gain of $48.80 (1.69%). The precious metal has demonstrated remarkable momentum since opening at $2,885 in Monday's Australian session, climbing steadily over twelve consecutive hours.

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The latest rally was triggered by President Trump's Sunday announcement of plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. These measures would add to existing trade barriers, including the 10% tariff on Chinese goods and proposed 25% duties on Mexican and Canadian imports, the latter currently under a 30-day postponement.

"Obviously the tariff war is behind the rise; it just reflects more uncertainty and more tension in the global trade situation," noted Marex analyst Edward Meir. The metal has already set seven record highs in 2025, prompting Blue Line Futures' chief market strategist Phillip Streible to suggest that "Gold's 45-degree rally since December might create a self-fulfilling prophecy," potentially pushing prices toward $3,250 or $3,500.

Investors are particularly focused on inflation concerns arising from these trade policies. While the impact of tariffs on U.S. import prices typically experiences a lag, market attention is centered on this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Meir suggests these indicators could significantly influence gold's trajectory, with lower-than-expected figures potentially weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices.

Market dynamics have been further influenced by China's retaliatory tariffs on $14 billion worth of U.S. goods and a new Chinese pilot program allowing select insurance firms to invest up to 1% of their holdings in gold—potentially introducing $27 billion in new demand, according to SP Angel analysts.

The market will also closely monitor Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Gold's recent performance has been notably robust, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains since December 30—a pattern of strength not seen since June 2020. This sustained upward momentum has created a near-parabolic price trajectory, reflected in consistently positive weekly candlestick patterns that underscore the market's strong bullish sentiment.

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Wishing you, as always good trading,

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner has been a technical market analyst for 25 years. A frequent contributor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine, he has also written for Futures Magazine as well as Barrons. He is the executive producer of "The Gold Forecast," a daily video newsletter.

He has been a speaker for financial seminars including Futures West and the Dow Jones Financial Symposium which travels throughout the world.. Coauthor of "Trading Applications Of Japanese Candlestick Charting" a John Wiley publication.

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