BTC fell from $98K to $95K in what seems to be a failed rally, but the price action is forming a classic bump and run pattern. The 4-hour chart shows BTC breaking above resistance, retracing back to previously broken resistance, and now bouncing off of that level—turning it into support. This setup is extremely bullish and signals higher prices ahead. BTC now has several overhead targets to clear, with the nearest just above $98K.
BTC Open Short Confirms a Full TBO Reset
Yesterday’s daily candle closed with a TBO Open Short signal, which is a full reset of the TBO. While Open Shorts may seem bearish at first, they typically signal the end of a downtrend rather than the start of a new one. The next stage of the bullish reversal process will be confirmed when we start seeing TBO Close Shorts and Open Longs. As long as the daily TBO Slow line continues pushing upward, the macro trend remains bullish.
ETH Holding Firm with Institutional Buying
Ethereum followed BTC lower yesterday but only dropped slightly. Daily RSI appears compressed like a coiled spring, which could indicate a strong move soon. More importantly, World Liberty Financial added another 1,917 ETH ($5M), bringing their total holdings to 61,114 ETH at an average entry of $3,354. Their continued DCA strategy reinforces the idea that ETH is trading at a major discount, down 21% from their average entry. If ETH moves toward that level, a further rally is likely.
ETH Short Squeeze Potential Remains High
ETH remains heavily oversold, and open short interest on ETH is at historic highs. If a short squeeze begins, it could force rapid liquidations and drive prices higher. Meanwhile, stablecoin dominance remains elevated above 6%, indicating sidelined capital. For a major crypto rally, we need BTC or ETH to start pushing higher to trigger FOMO and rotate funds from stablecoins back into the market.
Dominance Charts Indicate Market Shifts
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) dropped by 0.49% yesterday as ALTs outperformed BTC briefly. This resulted in BTC.D RSI moving lower, which is a necessary step for an ALT recovery. The Top 10 Dominance chart closed up 2.13% and is now testing the daily TBO Fast line—often the first touchpoint in a reversal. OTHERS Dominance is showing a similar pattern, but RSI needs to exceed its January high of 48.74 for a sustained bullish move.
BVOL7D Printing Open Short Signal—Indicating a Reversal for ALTs
BVOL7D is in the process of printing an Open Short signal today. If this trend continues, BVOL7D should continue bleeding back down toward the bounce zone of 4.00-4.80 over the next week, which would be a major catalyst for ALTs to rally.
BTC/Gold RSI Reset at 3-Month Lows
BTC/Gold fell to a 3-month low, but today could print an RSI Reset. While not a major trading signal, this is an interesting development that suggests BTC may begin outperforming gold in the short term. Meanwhile, gold itself remains extremely bullish, approaching the 2.618 Fib extension target of $3,113. However, RSI has formed a potential double top, showing early signs of momentum slowing down.
ALT Market Showing Strength Across Key Coins
ADA reacted positively to Grayscale’s ETF announcement. TRX bounced late Monday after printing six TBO Close Shorts in a cluster on the 4-hour chart. SUI hit overhead resistance but is poised for another attempt to break higher. LTC rallied 37% from support to TBO Resistance at $130, closing my LTC/BTC trade in profit. JUP printed another TBO Close Short on the 4-hour chart, and in four of the last five instances, it moved up a minimum of 16%. MKR is printing another TBT Bullish Divergence on the daily, signaling potential strength ahead.
Final Thoughts and Trading Strategy
This market chop has been exhausting, but patience is key. BTC is forming a bump and run pattern, while ETH continues to see institutional accumulation. Short interest in ETH remains at record levels, making a squeeze increasingly likely. ALTs are showing early signs of reversal, and BVOL7D suggests a market shift is on the horizon. The best approach right now is to take profits when possible, stick to your plan, and stay focused on the bigger picture.
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