Bitcoin kicked off the new daily candle with a -3% drop, piercing the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension level. While this looks bad at first glance, the selling appears to be manufactured—at least for BTC and SOL.
On-balance Volume (OBV) for Bitcoin remains steady, despite price dropping, indicating that real selling pressure isn't backing this move. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s OBV is actually making lower lows, showing clear evidence of actual selling.
The 1-minute charts further confirm that ETH is being specifically targeted, with BTC and SOL getting dragged down in the process.
BTC’s 1-minute candle started seeing heavy selling at 10:30 AM (user time), but ETH’s drop was much sharper at -1.56% in a single minute.
Market Sentiment Remains Weak, But Signs of Exhaustion Are Emerging
Stablecoin Dominance continues to climb, working on its third TBO Breakout with RSI pushing higher. Bitcoin Dominance remains flat, while Top 10 Dominance is dropping slightly. OTHERS.D is still at resistance, signaling that smaller altcoins are struggling to gain traction.
The biggest indicator to watch is BVOL7D, which is about to hit the Rejection Zone today. Historically, this means volatility will peak soon, but it typically takes at least a week before a reversal materializes. This suggests that the market could continue selling off in the short term before stabilizing.
Macroeconomic Factors Are Adding Pressure
The DXY surged yesterday after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, pushing it back to the TBO Fast Line. A stronger dollar often leads to downward pressure on risk assets like crypto.
Gold, meanwhile, has fallen back inside the daily TBO Cloud, signaling a strong likelihood of bearish consolidation.
Meme Coins Flash Green Amidst the Sell-Off
One strange market development: while major assets continue to drop, some meme coins are flashing green. NEIRO on ETH, MEW, and PNUT are all in the green, with ACT on the verge of flipping.
If this was truly a market-wide liquidation event, everything should be red. The fact that memes are holding up suggests that traders are growing tired of the constant selling and may be looking for opportunities.
Ethereum Continues to Bleed, But Is Approaching Long-Term Support
Ethereum remains the primary target of this sell-off, with price approaching long-term support. Despite the negativity, ETH hasn’t done much to support or grow its ecosystem in years. If Vitalik wanted to reverse sentiment, stopping ETH inflation and burning 10% of the inflated supply would likely trigger an immediate price pump.
That being said, ETH’s current drop is aligning with a key technical support level. The market is aggressively shorting it, but sentiment can shift quickly.
February Ending With Heavy Losses, Will March Bring Relief?
If markets close at these levels, February will end with:
- BTC down -20%
- ETH down -33%
- SOL down -43%
The extreme drawdowns highlight just how brutal this month has been for crypto. Historically, heavy selling like this often sets up relief bounces, but sentiment remains weak heading into March.
Final Thoughts
The market is in a fragile state, with ETH bearing the brunt of the latest sell-off. BTC and SOL are experiencing "fake" selling, while ETH is seeing actual selling pressure. BVOL7D suggests that volatility is peaking, meaning we could see another week of turbulence before conditions improve.
Despite the short-term uncertainty, patience remains key. Crypto has a long history of extreme shakeouts before major reversals.
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