The crypto market has been experiencing one of the most challenging periods in recent memory. Every time there seems to be a reason for optimism, it is quickly erased by another wave of selling. Retail traders, who typically fuel strong market uptrends, appear to be completely absent from the market. Given the extreme volatility and manipulation in recent months, it’s difficult to see how retail investors would be enticed to jump in right now. Historically, they tend to arrive late—only after prices have already rebounded later in the year.
BTC’s Pump Fueled by Low Liquidity, Quickly Reversed
Bitcoin’s brief rally on Sunday was sparked by a post from former President Donald Trump. However, it was just that—a post, not an executive order or any meaningful policy shift. Posting such an announcement on a Sunday, a period of typically lower liquidity, suggests that the move was designed to influence the market under conditions of reduced trading volume.
The rally also created the largest CME Gap in history, with a price difference of nearly $10,000. That gap at $85,000 has already been closed, and BTC is now back below the daily TBO Cloud. A key takeaway from recent price action is that TBO Support has moved up from $53,745 to $85,050, indicating that this level could serve as a strong support zone. Despite this, the sharp volatility and lack of sustained momentum suggest that BTC remains in a fragile state.
On-Balance Volume Highlights Weak Market Structure
Looking at Bitcoin’s four-hour chart, there are clear discrepancies between price movement and volume. The return to $85,000 did not see volume levels match the intensity of Sunday’s bullish pump. Additionally, On-Balance Volume (OBV) briefly broke above long-term support, only to fall back below it. The moving average on OBV is starting to shift upward, which is one of the few encouraging signs amid the ongoing sell-off. However, until BTC reclaims key resistance levels, the broader trend remains bearish.
ETH Looks Even Weaker, Signaling Continued Downside Risk
Ethereum’s price action has been particularly discouraging. After briefly following BTC’s pump, ETH has resumed its downtrend and remains stuck below the TBO Cloud on the four-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes.
On the four-hour chart, ETH has fallen back below the critical $2,150 level, a price that has acted as both support and resistance since 2023. Small signs of potential strength include RSI not printing lower lows and OBV forming a slightly higher low. However, these signals are not enough to confirm a reversal. One major concern is that weekly RSI has now dipped below 25, a level that historically signals continued bearish pressure rather than an imminent recovery.
Stablecoin Dominance and Bitcoin Dominance Indicate Market Hesitation
Stablecoin dominance surged again to 7.22%, reaching TBO Resistance. Interestingly, daily RSI did not reach 70, which suggests that while stablecoin dominance remains elevated, it may not have the momentum to keep pushing higher. This could indicate that selling pressure is starting to weaken, but it is too early to call a top.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) also increased yesterday, which is notable because previous bullish price action saw BTC.D remain relatively stable. Similar to stablecoin dominance, BTC.D remains at resistance, and daily RSI has failed to make a new high. The expectation remains for sideways chop rather than a decisive move in either direction.
Meanwhile, Top 10 Dominance surged past a key resistance level over the weekend before being sharply rejected. In order for this breakout to be confirmed, the price needs to hold above that resistance level today. Given the current market conditions, however, a retracement seems more likely. OTHERS.D, representing smaller-cap altcoins, was also rejected at its first resistance fan level over the weekend.
BVOL7D Nearing a Reversal Zone, Hinting at a Market Shift
One of the few encouraging signals right now comes from BVOL7D, which is approaching the top of its "Rejection Zone." Historically, when BVOL7D reaches this level, it signals that volatility is peaking and a reversal is likely to follow. If this pattern holds, it could bring much-needed relief to the crypto market.
Altcoins Struggle, but HBAR and Select Memecoins Show Resilience
Altcoins remain largely under pressure, with some notable exceptions. Solana (SOL) is dropping back down to test the $125 level, with hopes that it will form a higher low. XRP has yet to fully retrace Sunday’s pump, but the selling pressure suggests that it is heading in that direction. ADA met resistance at $1.18, confirming it as a strong level of rejection, and has since fallen back significantly.
HBAR is one of the few altcoins in the green today, showing relative strength compared to the broader market. NEIRO on Ethereum is also holding up well, highlighting that some memecoins are attracting speculative attention even in a bearish market.
Final Thoughts: Navigating One of the Toughest Crypto Environments Ever
The last several months have been some of the most difficult periods in crypto. The constant cycle of hope and subsequent disappointment has tested even the most seasoned traders. Retail traders, who historically fuel major rallies, are nowhere to be found, and market conditions remain unattractive for new investors.
For traders, the best course of action right now is to stick to their strategy, whether it be dollar-cost averaging into strong assets or using disciplined stop losses to protect capital. Avoiding overexposure to leverage is critical, as the continued wave of liquidations has proven how quickly the market can punish overleveraged positions.
The short-term pain may not be over yet, but this environment is where disciplined traders set themselves up for future success. As history has shown, patience and a well-structured trading plan are the keys to surviving—and thriving—during turbulent market conditions.
For those looking to refine their investment approach and navigate these challenging conditions with confidence, The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor at Mastering Assets provides the essential tools and strategies needed to succeed.
