A major development in the crypto space emerged with the recently signed executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. According to a breakdown by Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. government will maintain two separate holdings: a strategic reserve and a stockpile.
The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve will exclusively hold BTC, using the approximately 200,000 BTC already in the government’s possession from seizures over the years. Trump’s administration has also authorized the exploration of ways to acquire additional BTC without taxpayer funding.
The Digital Asset Stockpile will contain other cryptocurrencies—likely ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA, as mentioned in previous announcements. However, the government will not actively seek to purchase more of these assets. Instead, the stockpile is aimed at ensuring responsible management of digital assets under the U.S. Treasury.
While the order marks a historic shift in U.S. policy towards Bitcoin, the market’s reaction has been underwhelming. BTC is currently down 5%, reflecting the familiar pattern of “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Bitcoin Tests Support at $85K Amidst Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin's daily chart shows BTC falling directly to TBO Support at $85K, a critical level that could serve as a strong bounce zone. While this may present a “buy the dip” opportunity, price action remains uncertain.
One major factor to watch is On-balance Volume (OBV). BTC needs several consecutive green daily closes with significant volume to confirm a trend reversal. Without this, further downside remains a risk.
ETH, on the other hand, is attempting to hold above $2,150, but so far, it remains in a bearish downtrend. While there is some optimism due to higher lows forming on OBV, complacency is a growing concern. The market may be accepting ETH’s $2,000 price level as the new norm, reducing the likelihood of a near-term push back toward $4,000.
Dominance Charts Show Cracks in Bitcoin and Stablecoin Strength
Stablecoin dominance briefly spiked during the market dump but was quickly rejected at TBO Resistance (7.22%), a positive sign of weakness in stablecoin demand. A drop in stablecoin dominance typically signals a shift back into BTC and altcoins.
Bitcoin dominance was also rejected at 61.58%, further indicating that alts could be on the verge of gaining strength. The key indicator here is OTHERS.D, which appears to be confirming a break above its first resistance fan line.
Market-wide weakness, however, has caused TOTAL market cap to fall back below its resistance fan line, while TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 respected overhead resistance and retreated slightly lower.
Among all market cap indices, OTHERS remains the most interesting. OBV is still holding key support, but a significant surge in buying volume is needed to push it decisively higher. Until that happens, altcoins remain in limbo below the daily TBO Cloud.
BVOL7D Prints a TBO Breakout—Is the Bottom Near?
One of the most compelling signals in the market right now is BVOL7D, which is in the process of printing a TBO Breakout on the daily chart.
Historically, TBO Breakouts on BVOL7D occur just before major reversals. The last time this happened was in late January, immediately before BTC’s breakout rally to $96K. If the pattern holds, we could see a similar shift by this weekend.
However, Friday’s White House Crypto Summit remains a wildcard. Despite the speculation, there is no clear information on whether the event will be livestreamed or what the official agenda is. While this uncertainty can fuel volatility, traders should remain cautious as speculation alone is not enough to sustain long-term bullish momentum.
Traditional Markets Struggle While Crypto Eyes a Reversal
The VIX (Volatility Index) has surged again, signaling heightened fear in TradFi markets. Concerns over tariffs and inflation have pushed U.S. indices lower, but interestingly, crypto appears to be decoupling from stocks.
This shift is significant because historically, crypto has sometimes moved inversely to TradFi markets. While major stock indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq remain weak, Bitcoin and select altcoins appear to be forming bases for a potential recovery.
Altcoins Showing Signs of Accumulation
Solana (SOL) has tested TBO Support at $140 and printed a higher low, a strong signal of bullish buying. With OBV trending slightly upward, SOL’s short-term target remains $175.
XRP’s resistance level at $2.50 remains a key battle zone, but it needs to close above the daily TBO Cloud to turn fully bullish. A TBT Bearish Divergence signal is forming on the weekly chart, which could indicate a top in the next 8-12 weeks, similar to previous cycles.
Cardano (ADA) was rejected at resistance but remains above the TBO Cloud. The key clue pointing to this rejection was decreasing daily volume, a classic sign of a weakening uptrend.
Final Thoughts: Bullish Signs Emerging, But Volatility Remains
The crypto market is at a critical juncture, with several bullish reversal signals forming. However, short-term panic and uncertainty are still dominant, making risk management essential.
Bitcoin’s $85K support level is holding for now, but confirmation requires increased volume and stronger price action. Ethereum remains in a vulnerable position, and without a decisive breakout, it risks further downside.
As always, patience is key. The next few days will be pivotal, especially with the White House Crypto Summit approaching. Traders should stay vigilant, flexible, and ready to react to the market’s next move.
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