Bitcoin briefly dipped to $81,000 yesterday but has managed to hold above the critical $80,000 level. As long as it remains above the recent low of $79,939, the market structure remains intact. However, daily volume continues to decline, showing a lack of strong buying pressure. RSI is neutral, and On-Balance Volume (OBV) has yet to cross above its moving average, suggesting that a true bullish reversal is not yet in play.
BVOL7D, which tracks Bitcoin’s volatility, continues to drop, indicating reduced price swings in the short term. RSI for BVOL7D has fallen to an extremely oversold level of 13.10, which may suggest a brief increase in volatility before it ultimately moves lower into the Bounce Zone. With the FOMC meeting set for tomorrow, traders should expect some market turbulence, but there are no clear indications yet of how it might impact crypto.
Ethereum Stagnates with No Bullish Signals
Ethereum remains stuck in a tight range, showing little movement in either direction. The absence of significant volume and price action suggests a potential drop if selling pressure increases. Daily RSI is flat, OBV is still pointing downward, and no clear catalysts are emerging to push ETH higher. Without a major shift in sentiment, ETH is likely to continue underperforming relative to Bitcoin.
Stablecoin and Bitcoin Dominance Hints at Market Fear
Stablecoin dominance could spike back up to 8% if Bitcoin sees further weakness after the FOMC meeting. However, RSI is failing to keep up with stablecoin dominance’s price increase, which indicates weakening momentum. Once stablecoin dominance begins to decline inside the TBO Cloud, it will signal that market confidence is returning, allowing Bitcoin and altcoins to recover.
Bitcoin dominance is still hovering near support but has yet to break below it. A drop in BTC.D would indicate that capital is rotating into altcoins, which would be a strong bullish sign for the broader crypto market. However, this shift has not materialized yet, and until it does, altcoins will continue to lag.
OTHERS.D Approaches Key Resistance
Top 10 Dominance has started to retreat back into the daily TBO Cloud, which suggests some short-term weakness. Meanwhile, OTHERS.D, which tracks mid- and low-cap altcoins, is slowly pushing toward its first resistance fan line. A decisive breakout has yet to occur, and with the FOMC meeting tomorrow, the market could see a shakeup before any clear trend emerges.
OTHERS market cap continues to hold its ground, with daily OBV and RSI staying above support. However, the lack of volume is concerning, and until there is a surge in trading activity, price action will remain sluggish. A breakout still seems possible, but it will require BTC stability and a decline in stablecoin dominance and BTC.D.
Traditional Markets Prepare for FOMC-Driven Volatility
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) put in a higher low on RSI, suggesting that its recent downtrend is close to reversing. If DXY begins to rally, it could put downward pressure on stocks and crypto, reinforcing the importance of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
S&P Futures are looking relatively strong, trading near the TBO Fast Line at $5,771. The recent sell-off in traditional markets may be slowing down, and if the FOMC meeting is interpreted as dovish, equities could continue their recovery. However, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain, with macroeconomic factors still weighing on investor sentiment.
The VIX saw a small uptick yesterday after briefly dipping below the rejection zone, signaling short-term uncertainty ahead of the FOMC meeting. If volatility spikes, stocks and crypto could experience sudden price swings.
Gold has climbed to $3,033, but RSI is struggling to break overhead resistance at 85. If RSI fails to push higher, it could indicate that gold’s momentum is weakening. Volume is also declining, reinforcing the idea that a slowdown may be approaching.
XRP and BNB Struggle at Resistance
XRP continues to battle overhead resistance but has yet to break through. Daily volume remains well below the 30-day moving average, suggesting weak buying pressure. While OBV remains bullish, XRP needs to close above its resistance level to regain momentum.
BNB made an attempt to test resistance but fell short, signaling a lack of strength. Without an increase in volume, BNB is likely to continue struggling to push higher.
Altcoins Show Mixed Performance
ATOM has printed a second TBO Close Short, reinforcing its bullish reversal potential. OBV remains strong, volume is above the 30-day moving average, and RSI is not overbought yet, leaving room for further upside.
FET is still battling its first overhead resistance fan line, which has been a key barrier since early March. A breakout is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
MKR surged 15% after a TBO Close Short cluster appeared on the 4-hour chart, highlighting the importance of tracking divergence signals for early trade opportunities.
Looking Ahead
With the FOMC meeting tomorrow, market volatility is expected to increase. Bitcoin remains in a tight range, and a break below $80,000 could trigger further downside. Ethereum continues to struggle with low volume and bearish momentum, while stablecoin dominance and BTC.D are still holding firm, preventing a full rotation into altcoins.
The broader crypto market is at a crossroads, and traders should be prepared for potential short-term downside before a clearer trend emerges. Patience remains key in this uncertain environment.
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