Apr 1, 2025
- Will tomorrow’s US tariff tax announcement mark a key “all the bad tax news is in” low for the stock market?
- Could it mark a high for safe-haven gold?
The 42,800 high for the Dow is important but unfortunately...
- It’s only important for “price chasers” who only care about the stock market making one new high after another.
A rise above Dow 42,800 is not going to change the horrific overvaluation problem the market faces… and a rally now would make the problem worse.
For the past several decades, US recessions have been deflationary. The next one is more likely to be inflationary.
Gold? Gold is overbought, but in a strong market, it’s normal to stay overbought for extended periods of time.
- Also, note the key 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. In a strong market, it tends to bottom around the 50 zone, rather than the oversold zone at 20 and below. That’s what’s happening now.
- Looking ahead, the May to October period is often soft for gold (albeit with a nice summer rally). The market could finally get a decent pullback then, and it will likely be an important time to buy, for an absolute barnburner of a rally that probably takes gold towards $4000 by the spring of 2026!
- By October of this year, stagflation will be more in mainstream money manager “headlights”, the basing period of gold stocks and silver bullion versus gold will be over… and those items will soar.
- The stock market will likely have crashed by then as well, leaving money managers with little to buy other than the miners.
The most likely scenario for silver is a move up to $37 by May, a swoon to as low as $30 by October, and then a surge to $50 by the spring of 2026.
- For silver bugs who buy a pullback to $30, they likely stand to make about 60-70% in just 6 months, and some of the miners could move hundreds of percent higher.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the coming pullback (expected in May) is unlikely to be the end of the powerful Wave C.
- Wave D probably begins in May of 2026, and when it ends, gold likely moves to $5000-$6000 and silver to $80-$100 in Wave E, which is typically a speculative wave.
- The amount of speculation (which could be fear-related) will determine how high the final wave goes. Numbers like $10,000 and $20,000 are possible… and even when it ends, empire transition from fiat-based America to gold-oriented China and India will be mostly complete and limit the downside. Gold will likely range trade at a high price during the next major “bear market”, rather than decline hard like it did in 1980 to 2000.
Gold is a currency (and it’s the best currency). It’s a form of cash, but most investors are unaware of this fact. They seek to make market profits to accumulate fiat rather than accumulate gold.
- Even if they make significant market profits, they are fiat and over time become losses against gold. It’s very important for all investors to own as much gold as they can.
- Western money managers endorse allocating only 1%-2% of an investment portfolio to gold as a “fiat hedge”, whereas in Asia it’s 10%-20%... and that doesn’t include all the 22k-24k jewellery that citizens accumulate there as well.
- When Western stock markets fall, investors are ruined because they have little or no gold. With all due respect to the money managers and stock market investors, if the Dow falls 70%-90% in a stagflation-oriented meltdown, investors with 1% in gold might as well have bought a clown suit with their cash instead.
- A 1% allocation to gold, given the empire transition and significant stagflation that lie ahead… well, it’s basically a de facto number of zero.
Miners? There’s been a lot of gyration in the price over the past couple of days.
Why is that? Whenever the price arrives at a major high, volatility rises. Investors tend to want to put trades on during these events, but it’s generally better to sit tight for a few days and let the market either really break higher or pullback more significantly.
- If there’s a pullback now, the $44 area would be an ideal place to buy. If there’s a real breakout, then a pullback to $46 would provide an optimal entry point. A lot of analysts are trying to figure out whether the US government is bluffing about new tariffs… but the bottom line is that tariffs are here and more are coming. Growth is stagnating and the stock market is ridiculously overvalued. All lights are green, for the supreme currency that can only be gold!
Thanks!
