Tariffs Trigger New Sell-Off as BTC Tests Support
Markets are on edge again as BTC drops nearly 2%, threatening Monday’s low of $74,508. If this level fails to hold, the next major test is the “must hold” support at $73,777. This sudden sell-off was triggered by the announcement that Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on China to 104%, effective April 9. It’s a sharp escalation in the ongoing trade war and signals that tensions between the U.S. and China may get much worse before they improve.
Currency War Adds Fuel to the Fire
The fallout is already rippling through global currency markets. The Yuan is weakening against the U.S. Dollar, prompting speculation that capital could flow into BTC, as it did during previous cycles. Arthur Hayes and Bybit’s Ben Zhou both suggested that a devalued Yuan could push Chinese investors into Bitcoin. However, that scenario is far from guaranteed. While the Yuan chart is printing a TBO Breakout, this is a sign of Yuan weakness, not strength, and Chinese capital controls could limit any BTC flow.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Yen is strengthening after quickly negotiating with the U.S., causing the USDJPY chart to fall, and possibly marking a bottom for the NIKKEI, which is recovering from sharp losses.
BTC: Signs of Resilience Amid Uncertainty
Despite the bearish backdrop, BTC has printed some promising technical signals. Daily RSI has dipped below 25, triggering another RSI Reset setup. OBV is sitting above its white MA line and yesterday’s daily volume exceeded the yellow MA line, signaling buy-side interest. Most importantly, BTC has not yet broken Monday’s low, meaning there’s still hope for a bounce. With the CME Gap at $81,890 still open and the weekly TBO Fast line near $86k, there’s strong potential for a corrective rally, especially if the market begins to digest the tariff news more calmly.
But Risks Still Loom
BTC remains well below the daily TBO Cloud, indicating that the macro structure is still strong bearish. The market is still digesting the implications of Trump’s new tariffs, and fear remains high, as shown by the strong bullish trend in Stablecoin Dominance, where daily RSI continues to climb. Bitcoin Dominance also remains extremely elevated, with RSI still hovering near 91, which historically correlates with weakness in ALTs and low-cap coins.
OTHERS.D Shows Flickers of Strength
Despite the fearful backdrop, OTHERS.D moved up nearly 1%, a strong statement considering the broader bearish environment. Daily RSI on the OTHERS chart is triggering another RSI Reset, OBV is rising toward support, and Volume has already exceeded the yellow MA line today. This improvement relative to the TOTAL crypto market cap chart suggests money may be rotating back into mid- and low-caps, even if BTC remains the dominant force for now.
Volatility Still Elevated, But a Reversal Could Be Near
The BVOL7D index is reaching peak levels in the Rejection Zone, with daily RSI at 90.18. Historically, this signals that a volatility spike is nearing its climax, which may allow ALT coins to rally in the coming 1–2 weeks as BTC stabilizes.
ALT Coins Still Under Pressure, But Opportunity Remains
XRP looks weak, piercing the must-hold level of 1.7711 twice in three days. A daily close below this level would be disastrous. SOL is struggling to gain traction, and ADA isn’t much better off. However, HYPE, S, and IP are showing signs of potential short-term reversals. S is back at daily TBO Support, and IP continues to flash TBT Bullish Divergence signals. BONK is holding above its double-bottom low, and NEO is bouncing, up 6% on the day with significant upside if it reclaims resistance.
Several Charts in Accumulation Zones
KAVA, CORE, SPX6900, and even FARTCOIN are showing strong technical support levels and repeatable trading ranges on their 4-hour charts. These may offer solid accumulation zones for traders looking to get in before the next move up. NEIRO and CAKE are also worth watching, both sitting at support levels with RSI Resets either confirmed or forming.
Conclusion
BTC is at a make-or-break moment, with $73,777 as the key support to hold. While fear and volatility remain elevated due to geopolitical uncertainty, there are multiple signs that the market is tired of being bearish. As BVOL7D peaks and TradFi begins to stabilize, crypto may finally start to recover. ALTs, particularly mid- and low-caps, continue to flash signs of life beneath the surface. But caution is warranted—take profits quickly, manage risk, and don’t assume we’ve bottomed until the charts confirm it.
