Bitcoin Breaks Out Above the Cloud, Liquidates $500M in Shorts
Bitcoin has surged to $94,000, pushing above the daily TBO Cloud and triggering over $500 million in short liquidations in the last 24 hours. This move mirrors the liquidation levels seen during the March 2nd Trump-fueled weekend pump. BTC is now in the process of printing a TBO Open Long on the daily chart—a signal not seen since September 2024. In past instances, such a print led to a price grind, then a pullback. Similar patterns in July and May 2024 reinforce this expectation.
While the current Open Long in progress is a massively bullish confirmation, it’s crucial to recognize that daily RSI is now overbought at 82.07. To maintain bullish momentum, BTC must close above the critical $95,000 level. This level holds dual Fibonacci significance—combining the 0.618 retracement from 2025 and the 1.618 extension from 2024. There’s also an upper wick from the March 2nd rally right at $95,000. If BTC can close above that level, a surge to $100K may follow swiftly. However, a short-term pullback to $90,000 remains a likely scenario before another attempt.
Macro Sentiment Shift and Gold’s Pullback Fuel Risk Appetite
The sharp move in BTC came alongside broader risk-on behavior in traditional markets. S&P Futures closed up 2% with a bullish engulfing candle. At the same time, Gold dropped 5% after nearly tagging the $3,500 extension level. Market sentiment shifted following Trump’s public reassurance that he wouldn’t remove Jerome Powell but hoped for rate cuts. Successful tariff negotiations with India added to the relief rally.
Gold topping out and pulling back signals that fear is subsiding across global markets. As panic diminishes, capital typically rotates into risk-on assets—BTC being the prime beneficiary. Supporting this, the PAXG/BTC ratio just printed a TBO Close Long, historically a signal of BTC’s coming outperformance over gold. BTC/Gold also confirmed a TBO Close Short, reinforcing the bullish bias.
Stablecoin Dominance Breaks Down as Capital Rotates into Crypto
Stablecoin dominance printed a TBO Cross Down yesterday after falling nearly 6%, with daily RSI dropping below 25. While a short-term bounce may occur, the chart is now firmly in bearish consolidation—a bullish signal for crypto. This setup is nearly identical to September 2024, which saw a drawn-out decline in stable dominance and a major rally in crypto.
Meanwhile, BTC.D printed a third consecutive TBO Breakout on yesterday’s candle. Weekly RSI has closed above a key resistance line, currently sitting at 82.49. If dominance pushes to the 72% level, it could bring further pain for altcoins, delaying their recovery even as BTC continues to thrive. Money is flowing primarily into BTC—not stablecoins, not ETH, and not low-caps—at least not yet.
Total Market Cap and OTHERS.D Flash Recovery Potential
The TOTAL crypto market cap closed above its second resistance fan line with bullish daily RSI, OBV, and Volume. TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 printed TBO Close Shorts, signaling broad-based recovery, while OTHERS (low-cap alts) is beginning to show real strength. OTHERS printed a TBO Close Short similar to September 2024, which preceded a 134% rally. A pullback to the TBO Fast Line should be expected and welcomed as a potential ideal entry.
Volume and OBV for OTHERS are finally moving above key thresholds, but traders must temper excitement while BTC.D remains strong. Volatility is also climbing again as BVOL7D reverses from the Bounce Zone. This doesn’t mean BTC will dump, but that volatility is back on the rise.
ETH and Alts Join the Rally—Cautious Optimism Warranted
ETH jumped 11% and entered the daily TBO Cloud, transitioning to bullish consolidation. It’s the first bullish impulse for ETH in nearly a year. Weekly RSI just had an RSI Reset, but strong resistance remains overhead, and a move above $4,000 remains unlikely without major improvements.
XRP, BNB, and SOL all printed TBO Close Shorts, with BNB finally breaking overhead resistance after repeated tests since January. SOL continues to consolidate above key Fibonacci support, though resistance near $176 will be a major test.
ADA and LINK both printed TBO Close Shorts, but LINK’s OBV structure looks stronger. AVAX, SHIB, SUI, and LTC all saw strong moves, with breakout clusters and resistance tests lining up across the board.
Low-Cap and Meme Coins Rebound With Strength
OM and DOT printed bullish divergence signals or TBO Close Shorts, though both remain oversold. XMR and NEAR surged through resistance, and APT followed suit. Meme coins had a particularly strong session: PEPE rose 14%, TRUMP pushed 10%, and BRETT posted a 42% move. SHIB, BONK, GALA, FLOKI, and WIF all broke above key resistance.
FET and KAS both confirmed new uptrends with strong closes, and GRASS printed yet another TBO Close Short, suggesting exhaustion. HEX also confirmed a reversal after the SEC dropped its case against Richard Heart, triggering renewed interest.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s breakout above $94K confirms a new leg up, but $95K remains the line in the sand. Closing above that level would unlock the door to $100K, but given how rapidly BTC has climbed, a pullback to $90K first is a healthy and likely outcome.
The broader crypto market is showing signs of strength, particularly as stablecoin dominance breaks down and key altcoin charts print reversal signals. However, BTC.D’s dominance still signals that Bitcoin will lead the charge for now.
As always, manage risk, watch for signals of exhaustion at resistance, and avoid FOMO as the market heats up.
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