BTC stalls for sixth time at $95,000 resistance
Bitcoin remains trapped below $95,000 after six failed breakout attempts in six days. This repeated rejection is reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment, especially as daily RSI continues putting in lower highs and daily Volume remains under the 30-day moving average. Despite staying above the daily TBO Cloud for eight days and OBV trending higher, BTC's inability to push higher suggests growing likelihood of a retracement.
Fibonacci retracement levels to watch include $90,361 (0.5), $86,339 (0.382), and $82,000, which marks a confluence zone between the 1.272 extension from 2024 and the 0.236 level from 2025. The 4-hour chart is still holding strong without a TBO Close Long signal, but TBT Bearish Divergence Clusters are forming again. The setup is eerily similar to BTC's behavior near its $109K top in January.
BTC.D and Stablecoin Dominance highlight indecision across crypto
Stablecoin dominance is stuck in bearish consolidation inside the daily TBO Cloud with RSI slowly recovering. While a TBO Close Short hasn’t printed yet, the setup mirrors March 28th—just before a spike in fear. Bitcoin Dominance continues to push higher but daily RSI is rolling over with lower highs. The 4-hour chart is showing multiple TBO Close Longs on BTC.D, signaling a possible weakening trend.
Top 10 Dominance remains strongly bearish under the daily TBO Cloud, while OTHERS.D continues to hold above prior resistance, now confirmed as support. With daily RSI printing higher lows and the weekly chart echoing signals from June 2023, OTHERS.D is showing early signs of strength—despite being suppressed by BTC’s indecisiveness.
Altcoin sentiment grows with confirmations from TOTAL3 and OTHERS
The TOTAL market cap is pausing just below $2.95 trillion resistance, mirroring BTC's flat action. However, TOTAL3 (excluding BTC and ETH) remains above its daily TBO Fast line and recently printed a TBO Open Long—its first since Tuesday. This is a strong confirmation that the bearish trend is fading for mid-cap altcoins.
OTHERS market cap also confirmed a daily TBO Open Long yesterday, despite a 4-hour TBO Close Long signaling potential short-term volatility. This reflects mounting impatience among altcoin traders as BTC stagnates. A slow-burning BVOL7D returning to the Bounce Zone reinforces the idea of an incoming breakout phase, similar to October 2024.
TradFi resilience and Gold cooling signal risk-on appetite returning
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has begun its rebound, validating prior bullish divergence and hinting at further upside. This historically weighs on BTC and stocks, though so far S&P Futures are holding up well, pushing inside the daily TBO Cloud. VIX remains stuck inside the Rejection Zone but is not showing signs of major volatility.
Gold has now retraced back to the daily TBO Fast Line after topping out just below $3,500. The price action supports a neutral global sentiment, and with PAXG/BTC in process of printing a TBO Open Short, BTC is poised to outperform Gold—just as it did in late 2023.
Altcoins start to break free as bullish signals stack up
Ethereum continues to drift sideways, awaiting a breakout from BTC to move higher. XRP and BNB remain rangebound. SOL, ADA, LINK, and NEAR are all bouncing off the daily TBO Fast line after recent TBO Close Shorts, indicating solid entry setups. LINK is in process of printing a TBO Open Long on today’s candle, which could confirm a breakout attempt.
Momentum is building in lower-cap names. CRV, AKT, and KAS are showing strong OBV trends and improved Volume. SEI and KAIA printed or are printing daily TBO Open Longs, while ACT is setting up its first TBT Bullish Divergence signal on the daily chart.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s sixth rejection at $95,000 and declining RSI/Volume put a short-term pullback on the table, potentially down to $82,000. However, macro signals remain bullish. Meanwhile, altcoin charts are lighting up with Open Longs and breakout clusters, hinting that the wider market is preparing to run—especially if BTC can finally break through $95K.
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