Gold poised for parabolic rise following back-to-back gains

Kitco Media
By Gary Wagner
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Gold poised for parabolic rise following back-to-back gains teaser image

Gold prices are surging to unprecedented heights in 2025, with back-to-back gains suggesting another parabolic price movement could be imminent. The precious metal has shattered multiple records this calendar year, building on an impressive 80% increase since October 2024, translating to a gain of $1,564.10 over just 14 months.

The most active June 2025 gold futures contract, which settled at $1,966 on Monday, October 24, 2024, has demonstrated remarkable strength in recent trading sessions. On Monday, June gold gained $96.10, followed by an additional $97.20 as of 5:05 PM ET yesterday, collectively adding nearly $200 per troy ounce in just two days. Gold currently trades at $3,444.50.

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Market analysts point to this acceleration as reminiscent of gold's previous parabolic move in April when the metal surged from $2,998 to $3,509.90 over eight trading days—a dramatic 17.52% gain of $524.

Two primary factors underpin gold's recent gains: significant dollar weakness and extraordinarily bullish market sentiment. Investors increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The economic concerns stem largely from the new administration's aggressive trade policies, with President Trump imposing import tariffs on nearly every major global economy. Recent economic reports indicate slowdowns in the United States, China, the European Union, and numerous other countries, fueling genuine concerns that these tariffs will trigger rising inflation.

Gold's intrinsic value becomes particularly attractive during periods of currency devaluation through monetary policies implemented by major countries worldwide. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine have heightened demand for the precious metal.

Central Banks Accelerate Gold Accumulation

Central banks globally have been accumulating gold at record levels as they diversify their balance sheets away from traditional fiat currencies, including the U.S. dollar. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased more than 1,000 metric tons of gold for the third consecutive year in 2024 and are expected to remain active buyers throughout 2025.

China's central bank has been particularly aggressive, increasing its gold reserves for the fourth straight month since February. Reuters reported that "China's gold reserves rose to 73.61 million fine troy ounces at the end of February from 73.45 million at the end of January." These reserves were valued at $208.64 billion at February's end, up from $206.53 billion in January.

De-Dollarization Efforts Boost Demand

De-dollarization efforts by countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and mitigate potential sanctions have further boosted gold demand. Central banks are increasingly using dollars to acquire more gold bullion as part of this strategic shift.

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With gold prices maintaining their current trajectory, investors will inevitably look to incorporate the precious metal as an essential component in their financial portfolios—a hedge against heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This increasing demand could easily propel gold substantially higher, potentially reaching $4,000 per troy ounce by the end of this year or the first quarter of 2026.

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Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner has been a technical market analyst for 25 years. A frequent contributor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine, he has also written for Futures Magazine as well as Barrons. He is the executive producer of "The Gold Forecast," a daily video newsletter.

He has been a speaker for financial seminars including Futures West and the Dow Jones Financial Symposium which travels throughout the world.. Coauthor of "Trading Applications Of Japanese Candlestick Charting" a John Wiley publication.

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