May 13, 2025
- The good news is that the bulk of US & Chinese government tariff taxes have been paused and stock markets in both countries are soaring.
- The bad news is that it appears most Western investors felt they should celebrate the good news… by jettisoning as much gold as fast as they can! Their actions are macabre and barbaric.
- Nobody in China or India celebrates good news by getting rid of their gold. Instead, they wisely buy more. The good news is that in the decades ahead, these nations will become the gold market’s main price makers.
- Gold should have risen $50/oz on yesterday’s good tariffs pause news. Instead, barbaric gamblers pushed it down $100… but interestingly, they pushed it into a buy zone for savvy investors.
For a look at the daily chart. Technically, it’s a battle of a descending triangle versus a pending Stochastics (14,7,7 series) buy signal on a bounce off $3200 price support.
- If the bears prevail, gold could trade at my major buy zone of $3150-$2950. The triangle target is $2900.
- If the bulls get the upper hand, the target is $3800.
Tariffs brought in about $17 billion in April for the government (while demolishing thousands of small businesses). That pales in comparison to the $89 billion in interest payments the government had to pay its creditors.
- The government has mentioned replacing income tax with tariffs, but imports would fall dramatically with significant tariffs in place (and already have). It’s conceivable (and probable?) that tariff rates would need to rise to 200%, or even 500%... to theoretically generate the income needed to replace what the US government gets from income taxes now. The bottom line:
- Got gold?
- If US government leaders are serious about getting rid of vile income taxes, they need to consider a domestic consumption tax equal to their external tariff tax rates… to boost savings rather than promoting low rates for silly debt worshippers.
Double-click to enlarge my “Destruction of Debtors” US rates chart. A large and bullish rectangular drift suggests rates are headed to 7% in the medium term.
In America, there’s a long-term 40-year interest rate cycle. The latest rising wave began in the year 2020. It likely continues until 2060… and ends with rates at or above 20%.
- The great news is that gold, silver, and mining stocks went ballistic during the last rising rates cycle.
- When the outrageous amount of debt that governments (and many citizens) have taken on is coupled with the rise of the gold-oriented citizens of China and India, the stage is clearly set for what is best termed gold, silver, and mining stocks nirvana.
- The US government wastes time counting gold bars it confiscated from citizens in the 1930s, instead of buying more…
- While the government plays bean counter, US Costco customers appear to be racing to eagerly buy about $200million a month of gold coins and bars.
Silver? To view what could be “the hottest chart in town”. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous daily chart for silver. A stunning divergence is in play; gold fell $100/oz to its April lows yesterday, while silver was barely down on the day.
- Note the Stochastics buy signal coming into play. A bullish CPI inflation report this morning could be rocket fuel for this, the “people’s metal”.
- I was a huge silver bug in the 1970s. I sold at the top of the market, thanks to the “Dean of Gold” Harry Schultz and Jim “Mister Gold” Sinclair… and I urged investors to focus on gold from the year 2000 to the present. The last half of a deflation cycle tends to favour gold more than silver.
- Today, I still recommend that all silver bugs own a decent amount of gold, but the coming decades should see silver get a lot more respect from investors, and it could outperform gold!
What about the miners? This GDX chart is enticing, but it’s unknown if the pullback ends at my buy zone for gamblers or in the big investor buy zone at $44-$39. The action of the Stochastics oscillator suggests it could end now.
- The bottom line is that gold is more solid than the Rock of Gibraltar, silver looks ready to become gold on steroids, and the miners are poised to become the world’s best performing equities.
- The only question is, are savvy investors onboard?
Thanks!
