Stop-loss-hunting alert sparks short-term caution
We just got our first TBT Stop Loss Hunting alert since April 14th. These alerts signal irregular BTC volatility in the next 24-48 hours, typically followed by sharp pullbacks, especially in ALTs. While 90% of these alerts lead to short-term bearish moves, there are times when they precede upside volatility—or result in nothing at all. Looking at examples from April, March, and February, the indicator has a strong track record of warning about dumps. Still, we’ve seen many alerts during bull runs too, such as the streak from November to mid-December 2024. With BTC still bullish on the daily time frame, I believe this latest alert could signal a quick dip before a continued move up.
BTC remains macro bullish despite alert
Even with the stop-loss alert in play, BTC looks strong across major indicators. Daily Volume remains above its moving average, OBV is pushing higher, and RSI just hit 80 again. The weekly chart is even better, showing long-term strength. So while a short-term dip is possible, the larger trend for BTC remains strong bullish. If there’s a pullback, expect stablecoin dominance to spike due to increased fear, while BTC dominance will likely rise as traders flock to the strongest asset.
ALTs vulnerable, but OTHERS.D shows early optimism
Top 10 Dominance and OTHERS.D are likely to be hit the hardest by a BTC dip, as BTC attracts more market share. OTHERS.D is trying to move higher with low-cap coins getting excited about BTC’s strength. Personally, I hope the stop-loss alert doesn’t play out this time, especially since the TOTAL market cap chart just printed a second TBO Breakout. A third Breakout today would be a huge signal for a market-wide pump. The last time this happened in November, TOTAL rallied nearly 47% over 38 days, with ALTs pumping even more during the election rally.
TOTAL and OTHERS charts flash bullish continuation signals
TOTAL’s only hurdle is long-term resistance from late January, but if we get that third TBO Breakout today, I expect this level to be crushed. Meanwhile, OTHERS is back above its daily TBO Cloud. Volume continues to surge above its average, OBV is climbing, and RSI is on the verge of hitting overbought levels. The weekly chart for OTHERS isn’t quite there yet, with OBV still lagging and RSI under 70, but the signs are close. BVOL7D confirmed a TBO Close Short on yesterday’s candle, and if stop-loss hunting results in volatility, we’ll likely see BVOL7D spike soon.
ETH leads among ALTs, SOL follows, LINK and LTC lag
ETH closed up 4.46% and continues to look strong bullish above the daily TBO Cloud, with Volume and RSI showing strength. Weekly Volume is approaching breakout levels, and RSI might close above 70 soon. ETH at $4k still feels reasonable to me if BTC keeps pushing. XRP needs to push above 2.67 to be convincingly bullish, despite already being above the Cloud. SOL is right at its previous high of $184.88, with bullish structure intact unless a BTC dip brings it back to support around $167. LINK is still grinding slowly toward resistance and hasn’t been above the Cloud since January, while LTC is trying to reclaim the Cloud but needs much stronger Volume to hit $140.
BCH spikes, HYPE on fire, and a wave of ALTs print bullish signals
BCH pumped 9%, as expected when BTC is bullish. HYPE is up and in progress of its third daily TBO Breakout. APT broke through major resistance but needs to hold that level. PEPE is in progress of printing a Breakout, while JUP and JTO are both surging above resistance. WIF pierced long-term resistance for the first time, and PENDLE printed a perfect three-in-a-row TBO Breakout Cluster. SPX6900 hit a new local high, and even FARTCOIN printed a TBO Breakout and is working on a second today.
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