May 27, 2025
- In the short-term gold is consolidating, after a huge rally against US government fiat. It has surged from about $1800 in October 2023 to $3500… with no significant pullback in the price.
To view the consolidation. A move through the supply line would likely end the consolidation and usher in a rally to $3570, or maybe to $3760.
Silver is stronger than gold. It’s broken above its supply line, but until gold does so too, upside action will likely be meagre.
- Even after the DOGE cuts, the US government’s horrific debt is still rising rapidly. In the long-term that means yields must go much higher.
- That’s bad news for the stock market, good news for gold, and fabulous news for the miners, since most money managers can’t invest in bullion, but they can buy the companies that mine it.
- In the short term, stock market investors aren’t very concerned about the government’s debt (although they should be). Their focus is tariffs, earnings, jobs, and GDP growth.
Technically, the bulls have a slight edge. The inverse H&S is bullish and only break under the 40,500 zone would void it.
- In China and India, a move to new highs for the stock market would see investors celebrate with significant purchases of gold. Horrifically, in the “stone age” West, investors celebrate that kind of good news by getting rid of their gold! They are rewarded for this ludicrous mindset in the short-term, but over time they get left behind, simply because of the superiority of gold versus fiat.
The early April stock market mayhem saw the Dow reach key support at 11 on this Dow/gold ratio chart.
- A rally to 15 would fit with a longer consolidation for gold that could stretch into October. The good news is that most gold bugs have an interest in various commodities and some of these are outperforming the stock market.
Double-click to enlarge this exciting URNM uranium stocks chart. It bottomed as the stock market did on April 7 and the chart action suggests it should be up 100% before there’s a significant pause.
- The inverse H&S pattern is majestic. Investors can essentially play the stock market with uranium stocks… while staying true to their love of commodities. The US government’s endorsement of the sector was the catalyst for the base pattern breakout…
- And it’s an endorsement that is likely here to stay.
- As a business owner, US President Trump is flexible enough to know when his tariff taxes are too outrageous… and chop them. Having said that, he’s not eliminating them completely.
- It’s going to take years for the republican and democrat parties’ obsession with ever-more debt to push rates to 8% and higher, but in the meantime, there will be more inflation from the tariffs.
“Growflation” is likely to occur before stagflation, and on that note. The CDNX is arguably the best indicator of coming inflation, and it looks set to rally modestly against gold.
For a more stunning look at it. It’s an incredible chart; from a relative performance perspective, the CDNX looks set to absolutely maul the Dow.
To view it against the Nasdaq QQQ ETF. The message is clear; junior mine stock investors are about to embark on a journey that will probably be best described as, “The 1970s on steroids”. Every day there are 10-20 CDNX stocks staging massive breakouts and rallies to significant highs… and most of them are miners!
- Not all gold bugs want to play in the junior resource stocks arena, but for those who want to be involved, this is probably the best time to do it in the past 50 years.
- Senior mine stock enthusiasts should view the CDNX action as a massive green shoot for their own holdings.
For a look at a key long-term gold stocks chart. The huge rally has turned the entire 171-157 zone for the XAU index into a major buy zone for the senior miners.
- Western investors are putting some pressure on gold with their macabre celebration of good tariff tax news, but in the big picture gold is well supported by de-dollarization and ongoing central bank buying, in addition to both fear and love trade buying in Asia.
- That means dips in the intermediate and senior miners can be bought, and if the June-October consolidation plays out as I’m projecting, what lies ahead is quite simply the greatest buying opportunity since the late 1960s for the miners.
- The big risk to the miners now is not a risk at all. It’s a scenario where there is no major consolidation or correction. Gold just surges above $3500… and the XAU and component stocks rocket to all-time highs!
Thanks!
