Gold Retreats on Weak U.S. Economic Data While Silver Reaches 12-Year High

Kitco Media
By Gary Wagner
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Gold Retreats on Weak U.S. Economic Data While Silver Reaches 12-Year High teaser image

Gold futures declined significantly on Thursday, with the August 2025 contract falling $24.10 (0.71%) to close at $3,356 per troy ounce as of 5:40 PM ET. The decline followed reports that Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping held an extensive 90-minute discussion focused exclusively on normalizing trade relations between the world's two largest economies.

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Prior to the announcement, spot gold had approached a one-month high of $3,380 per troy ounce, buoyed by weak U.S. economic data and an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve outlook that strengthened safe-haven demand ahead of Friday's critical jobs report.

Gold's recent surge to record levels reflects ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have driven the precious metal to all-time highs following the initial market shock of ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd, when U.S. financial markets experienced dramatic declines.

After Monday's remarkable $93 advance, gold has traded within a narrow range between $3,362 and $3,400 based on the August contract. While U.S. dollar weakness provided minimal support for gold prices, it was selling pressure from traders that ultimately took gold prices lower on the day.

The precious metals selloff coincided with a Commerce Department report showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed dramatically to $61.6 billion in April from March's $140 billion deficit. Imports fell 16% to $351 billion, reflecting the impact of tariffs implemented in early April.

During the April 2nd market rout, gold initially suffered alongside broader markets, losing approximately 6% over three trading days. Silver fared worse, declining over 15% in the same period. While gold recovered and advanced to new highs within a week, silver only recently surpassed its pre-Liberation Day levels.

Silver emerged as Thursday's standout performer, gaining $1.15 (3.34%) and posting intraday gains of 9.63% for the week. Despite retreating from session highs, silver maintained weekly gains exceeding 8% after reaching a 12-year high.

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The gold-to-silver ratio at approximately 94 suggests potential for additional silver upside. The ratio remains 1.5% above pre-tariff levels from early April.

Market participants await Friday's nonfarm payrolls report following concerning employment indicators. ADP's private payrolls showed only 37,000 jobs added in May—the weakest monthly gain since March 2023. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims rose to 247,000 in late May, the highest level since October 2024 and above the expected 235,000.

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Wishing you as always good trading,

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Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner has been a technical market analyst for 25 years. A frequent contributor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine, he has also written for Futures Magazine as well as Barrons. He is the executive producer of "The Gold Forecast," a daily video newsletter.

He has been a speaker for financial seminars including Futures West and the Dow Jones Financial Symposium which travels throughout the world.. Coauthor of "Trading Applications Of Japanese Candlestick Charting" a John Wiley publication.

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