BTC Prints TBO Close Long After -3% Drop
BTC pulled back 3% yesterday and printed a daily TBO Close Long 🔷, which usually signals a retrace to the TBO Fast line—currently around $104.6k. Volume exceeded the yellow MA, but OBV remains flat, and RSI nearly triggered a reset. The culprit? A public online feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump over the new budget bill—rattling markets, especially DOGE holders. This political chaos dragged BTC back into the daily TBO Cloud, entering “bearish consolidation” mode. While the dump feels dramatic, the TBT Stop Loss Hunting Alert has been firing for 10 days—this volatility was well-telegraphed.
ETH Sees Bigger Drop but Holds Stronger Structure
ETH dropped -7% and printed a second TBT Bearish Divergence Cluster. Despite the pullback, ETH’s indicators still look relatively healthy: Volume exceeded its MA, OBV remains above its white MA line, and RSI is still above 30. ETH/BTC took a -4% hit, falling just below the daily TBO Cloud—dimming bullish momentum. Still, ETH appears stronger than BTC on the surface, though ETH.D fell nearly -4%, signaling it may not be in high enough demand to lead.
Stablecoins Surge and Dominance Metrics Shift
Stablecoin Dominance printed a breakout above the daily TBO Cloud and RSI closed over 70—both signals of rising fear in the market. The 4h chart shows two recent TBO Breakouts, adding to concern. BTC.D rose as expected (+0.61%) during the dump, confirming the usual behavior of traders rotating into BTC. ETH.D’s 3.94% drop despite ETH’s strength highlights a lack of real demand, and both Top 10 and OTHERS.D remain strong bearish.
TOTAL, OTHERS, and BVOL7D: Mixed Signals
The TOTAL chart mirrored BTC with its own TBO Close Long 🔷, indicating a potential retrace but also showing weakening momentum. OTHERS had a joke of an RSI reset at 24.96—barely qualifying. BVOL7D still refuses to respond to this chaos, hinting that the real volatility spike may still be brewing.
TradFi Yawns While TSLA Tanks
While crypto spiraled, the S&P and other indices were unaffected. TSLA, however, got wrecked (-14.26%) with a massive volume spike. The VIX printed its first TBT Bullish Divergence since December 2023—a sign that traditional markets may start reacting soon.
ALT Setup: Watch for Bullish Engulfing Candles
Many altcoins are bouncing today, but it’s important not to get overly optimistic just yet. In most cases, these moves are simply recoveries from the sharp drops seen on yesterday’s candle. What really matters now is identifying charts that are forming a Bullish Engulfing Candle (BEC), a powerful signal of strength and potential continuation. BTC’s own moves on April 9 and April 11 are great examples of how impactful this candle pattern can be when paired with volume and momentum.
Among the alts, FLR has already formed a BEC. Others like FLOKI, MKR, COMP, MASA, and KAS are very close to doing the same. A few additional names, including HBAR, DOT, JTO, GRASS, and SPX6900, are worth watching carefully as they begin to recover and approach the criteria needed to print a true BEC.
BTC still has a lot of ground to cover before it can print a Bullish Engulfing Candle of its own. If that doesn’t happen today, it’s a strong indication that more chop and downside may be ahead as we head into the weekend.
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