BTC Holds Above Support but Faces $109k Resistance
BTC managed to stay above its prior resistance level and closed with daily Volume just barely over the yellow moving average line. This is a good sign, but the next major hurdle is the $109k zone, which combines TBO Resistance and horizontal price resistance. If BTC respects this level without breaking it, a retracement down to $98k is likely over the next couple of weeks. The good news is that this structure still resembles a Bull Flag, and while flags consolidate, they typically lead to bullish outcomes in the long run.
Flat Trend Signals Choppy Conditions Ahead
Despite BTC’s position above the daily TBO Cloud keeping its status as “strong bullish,” the flat TBO Slow line implies no clear trend. Flat Slow lines mean chop, not strength, and it aligns with what’s expected for crypto during the summer. ETH remains stuck inside its daily TBO Cloud, with weak Volume and little momentum.
Stablecoin Dominance Drops as BTC.D Climbs Again
Stablecoin Dominance continues to droop, which is typically a bullish sign for altcoins. However, BTC Dominance is rising again toward 66%, with its weekly RSI still above 70. The uptrend for BTC.D is firmly intact, and its next major resistance sits at 70%. ALTs will likely continue underperforming until BTC.D rolls over. A confirmation of that shift would be a Close Long on BTC.D, followed by a drop below the daily Cloud.
No Change Yet for ALT Dominance Charts
Top 10 Dominance, OTHERS Dominance, and ETH.D all remain firmly bearish despite early-week bounces. The TOTAL crypto market cap chart looks poised to close above its daily Cloud today, but if BTC gets rejected at $109k, it will likely drag the TOTAL chart down again. Meanwhile, BVOL7D continues falling toward its Bounce Zone, becoming less reliable and harder to interpret since early May.
DXY Breakdown Supports Risk-On Rally in TradFi
The DXY made a lower low, with daily RSI dipping below 25. This is a strong bullish setup for risk assets. The S&P is slowly inching higher, the NDX made a higher high and printed a TBO Breakout, and the FANG index is targeting the 1.272 Fib extension. NVDA printed another TBO Breakout, and the VIX continues to fall. Asian markets are also climbing, and WTI’s continued drop reflects reduced geopolitical fear. Gold has re-entered the daily TBO Cloud, returning to a bearish consolidation. The PAXG/BTC chart is still below the Cloud, but without any fresh TBO Breakdowns to confirm BTC outperformance—yet.
ALTs Still Struggling to Regain Strength
Across the crypto market, many charts are failing to break into the daily Cloud. While there are exceptions, the broader ALT landscape is still damaged from recent news-driven selloffs. APT is a good example. Despite bouncing from deeply oversold levels, it remains down 68% from December highs and still mirrors the wider market. Even though July historically offers a 7% median return, BTC’s summer tendency to chop suggests low-cap ALTs could suffer more.
4-Year Cycle Adds Context for August Optimism
Looking at the OTHERS market cap performance by 4-year cycles, August stands out with strength in both 2021 and 2017. That momentum didn’t last beyond those years, but it provides context for potential bounces. If BTC continues to respect $109k as resistance, we may be in for more downside before that next move higher.
Final Thoughts: DCA, Chop, and Conservatism for Summer
The plan remains steady: DCA through the chop, trade conservatively, and expect higher prices later this year. BTC’s macro trend is still bullish, but until it clears resistance, short-term caution is warranted.
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