It was just a few days ago when I wrote that June could easily be a down month for gold, and we didn’t have to wait for long.
After the $60+ fall, gold is now down by almost 1% this month!
The monthly decline is not huge, but if June ended right now (and we still have two June sessions ahead of us), it would be the first month where gold declined in 2025. Gold was rallying strongly until April, and then the rally appears to have ended.
The declining USD Index was preventing gold’s collapse, but right now, even a breakdown to new yearly lows in the former wasn’t able to prevent gold’s decline and – almost – the creation of a powerful monthly shooting star (reversal) candlestick.
Zooming in shows that gold now broke below not just one rising support line but also the second – and final – one. This is the final confirmation that the uptrend is over and that the downtrend has already begun.
Seeing three consecutive daily closes below the rising support line would serve as yet another confirmation, but since gold already confirmed the breakdown below the upper, dashed line (which it wasn’t able to confirm previously), the outlook is already clear.
The above is also in tune with what Ryan Mitchell wrote in his first Seasonal Trading Primer (yes, this service is included in our Diamond Package).
Silver is also down, and once it gets back below the 2024 low, the waterfall selling will be the likely result.
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In yesterday’s analysis, I wrote the following:
Silver is up, and it’s already after an intraday reversal.
This is remarkable because of two reasons:
This is exactly what happened right after the previous major tops (marked on the chart)
- This is what we know to be a short-term sell signal – silver’s short-term outperformance of gold while miners are not doing the same thing.
If you don’t have a short position in silver or if you think that the size of your position is not big enough, and you were looking for a good moment to enter the trade – in my opinion the current setup provides a very good risk to reward ratio.
Those who acted on the above are likely happy that they did, given today’s ~2% decline.
Also, please remember that when the USD Index finally rallies (also as per Trump’s Art of the USD), the decline in gold and silver is likely to accelerate and the declines in multiple commodities will either start or pick up pace.
The USD Index's cyclical (monthly) turning point is just around the corner. The implications are clearly bullish as the most recent move was definitely to the downside.
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