BTC Rejected at Resistance, Bearish Candle Forms
BTC tapped resistance perfectly yesterday and was immediately rejected, forming a Bearish Engulfing candle—a short-term warning sign. The last four times BTC printed this pattern, it dropped afterward. Despite being above the daily TBO Cloud, the daily Slow line is weakly bullish and volume has been trending lower. RSI is also putting in lower highs, and Sunday’s push didn’t even reach overbought levels. A second TBT Bearish Divergence Cluster on the 4-hour chart echoes the setup from June 12th, which preceded a drop from $110k to $98k.
Mixed Signals: Monthly Close Bullish, Daily Chart Weak
BTC did notch its highest monthly close ever at $107k, and the monthly chart remains strong bullish. However, on the daily timeframe, the short-term picture looks weak. If BTC continues to respect resistance, it could drag ALTs down with it. Looking at historical monthly performance, July tends to be bullish with a median return of 8%, which would project a monthly close around $115k. Volatility projections show a potential move from $98k to $128k within the month—so a swingy July is likely.
TradFi Shifts to Risk-On Mode, Crypto Lags Behind
A massive macro tailwind could be forming as Donald Trump pushes for a $5 trillion stimulus bill and pressures the Fed to lower interest rates. If this leads to Quantitative Easing, it would inject massive liquidity into all markets. Traditional finance markets appear to be pricing this in already. The S&P hit a new all-time high and printed a second daily TBO Breakout. The Nasdaq continues to fly after a TBO Breakout cluster, and NVDA hit new highs. Meanwhile, the VIX is down, WTI is under $70, and Gold remains in bearish consolidation.
Crypto Not Reacting to Bullish News… Yet
Despite bullish macro tailwinds, crypto hasn’t responded. ETH didn’t move on news of a massive accumulation fund, and SOL barely reacted to ETF approval. Stablecoin Dominance is still in bearish consolidation, but its Slow line is angled up—implying macro bullishness, which is bad news for crypto in the short term. BTC Dominance remains strong bullish with the Slow line still rising. Until a TBO Close Long prints on BTC.D, ALTs will struggle to gain traction.
Top 10 and OTHERS Dominance Show Some Hope
Top 10 Dominance pushed into the daily TBO Cloud, showing signs of bullish consolidation, but it remains technically bearish with the Slow line pointing down. Weekly RSI is approaching resistance, and a green candle closed last week after six red weeks. OTHERS.D, however, remains firmly bearish, well below the Cloud and with an aggressively downward-pointing Slow line. While an ALT season feels overdue and catalysts exist, July’s success depends on BTC breaking above resistance.
July Outlook Hinges on BTC Price Action
A bullish breakout would ignite the next leg up for the entire crypto market, but if BTC respects resistance, we could see a continued pullback for another 12–13 days, projecting a bottom around July 13th. Until then, TradFi appears to be enjoying its run, while crypto waits its turn.
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