BTC Nudges Resistance—Bull-Flag Breakout or Classic Bull Trap?
Bitcoin’s three-percent “short squeeze” wiped out roughly a quarter-billion dollars in short positions and briefly pushed price through diagonal resistance as well as the TBO ceiling at $109k. Volume, however, barely cleared its moving average and RSI continues to register lower highs. Tuesday’s close slipped back into the daily TBO Cloud, returning price to bearish-consolidation territory. On the four-hour chart a fresh TBT Bearish Divergence cluster appeared alongside a TBO Close Long and a new Stop-Loss-Hunting alert. If BTC cannot exceed Monday’s $109,730 wick within the next session or two, probabilities tilt toward a flag fake-out that drags price to the daily Fast line and possibly a quick wick into the $97k zone around mid-July. A decisive break of $109,730, by contrast, would validate the bullish flag and open the way to the measured-move objective near $121k, roughly eleven percent above spot.
Momentum Gauges Offer Mixed Signals
On-balance volume still hugs its moving average, hinting at stealth accumulation, yet weekly volume remains anaemic and a weekly TBT Bearish Divergence is taking shape. The daily TBO Slow line has only just begun to tilt upward, far from the robust angle normally seen in healthy up-trends, so conviction remains fragile.
Liquidity Flows and Dominance Metrics
Stablecoin dominance has sagged back to technical support; a break lower would confirm capital rotation into crypto, but any sharp BTC dip is likely to catapult the metric toward nine percent, the level I earmark as a prime re-entry zone. Bitcoin Dominance rebounded at its Fast line and retains a plainly bullish structure, so until a daily TBO Close Long appears, hopes for an imminent alt-season should be tempered.
Market-Cap Clouds Remain Heavy
The TOTAL index has languished inside its Cloud since mid-June; with the Slow line still pointing down the macro bias stays bearish. TOTAL2’s weekly chart continues to print TBO Close Longs, echoing last summer’s lengthy sideways grind, and OTHERS.D, despite flashing a second daily TBT Bullish Divergence, is shackled by a sharply descending Slow line.
ETH and Leading Alts Show Early Thaw
Ether reclaimed its daily Cloud, but the macro Slow line is still negative and the long-standing $3.2–3.4k Fibonacci block has yet to yield. ETH/BTC is printing an Open Short, underlining relative weakness. Across majors the picture is mottled: ADA, AVAX and PEPE logged fresh daily TBT Bullish Divergences; LTC, JUP and ARB produced second daily Close Shorts at support, while TIA and S are trying to claw back into their Clouds. Volume remains the missing ingredient for a sustainable push.
Stand-out Movers and Tactical Plays
Bitcoin Cash is climbing steadily on an up-sloping Slow line and remains suitable for range strategies. KAIA bounced from its 0.382 retracement and still targets the 0.618 level, while SEI has exploded seventy percent in three sessions with volume seven times its norm; resistance looms near the half-dollar mark. WIF and APT are homing in on entrenched resistance but need sustained participation to break out. SPX6900 tagged its Fast line after a Close Long, satisfying the springboard pattern, and now seeks fresh catalysts.
Near-Term Watch List and Risk Markers
Price action over the next twenty-four hours at Monday’s high is pivotal; success would set $121k in motion, failure would reprise the mid-flag drop scenario. Stablecoin dominance at nine percent remains my trigger for aggressive dip buys, while a daily Close Long on BTC Dominance would signal that alt-season is finally stirring. For now I continue to treat rallies as range trades and preserve capital for a potential summer swoop once the flag’s trajectory becomes clear.
For in-depth strategy and tools, visit The Complete Cryptocurrency Investor by Mastering Assets.
