(Kitco Commentary) - The best-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 2.26%.
Strengths
- MMC Norilsk Nickel projects global platinum deficits of 200,000 ounces in 2025 and 300,000 ounces in 2026, driven by rising investor demand that may outpace available supply. These anticipated shortages represent a significant bullish catalyst for platinum prices, as physical deficits typically push prices higher to rebalance supply and demand in the market.
- Laopu Gold Co., a Chinese gold jewelry retailer, saw its shares surge as optimism over new store openings outweighed concerns about the expiry of the lock-up period following its IPO last year. Shares jumped as much as 18% in Hong Kong on Monday before closing up 15% at a record high. The company, which is undercutting LVMH and Cartier to attract customers, is gaining investor attention, according to Bloomberg.
- Canaccord research shows that gold has risen 94% of the time when the U.S. dollar weakens, with an average dollar decline of 19% corresponding to average gold gains of 33%. The U.S. dollar is currently in a depreciation trend, which historically supports a bullish outlook for gold based on this strong inverse correlation.
Weaknesses
- The worst-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down 0.68%. Prices dipped after last week’s unexplained surge. Nornickel expects a balanced palladium market through 2026, with no supply deficits, as the shift to electric vehicles is projected to reduce consumption by 3% to 7.5 million ounces. With internal combustion engine production forecast to fall 3% to 76 million units, palladium faces a structural headwind, as auto catalysts remain its largest demand source.
- Canaccord analyzed monthly share price performance for six steady-state gold producers over six years and found a clear seasonal trend: June was consistently the worst month on average—supporting the "sell in May and go away" adage. However, this past June, gold stock returns were above average, though still below the S&P 500’s exceptionally strong performance.
- Raymond James has turned bearish on gold’s short-term technical outlook, forecasting a pullback in precious metals as investors rotate into industrial metals like copper, which benefit from economic growth and infrastructure spending. The firm expects silver to also face pressure despite its industrial uses, due to its strong correlation with gold and risk of being caught in a broader precious metals sell-off.
Opportunities
- Gold climbed on optimism that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in the second half of the year, while investors closely watched U.S. trade talks ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. Bullion rose 0.6%, nearing $3,323 an ounce, as traders priced in higher odds of at least two U.S. rate cuts in 2025, according to Bloomberg.
- J.P. Morgan, which joined the $4,000-an-ounce club last month by raising its 2026 gold forecast from $3,019 to $4,068, called gold “one of the most optimal hedges” against stagflation, recession, debasement, and U.S. policy risks. Bloomberg also highlighted that silver has historically outperformed gold in past bull markets—gaining 1,363% from 1974–1980, 414% from 2001–2008, and 321% from 2006–2012.
- B2Gold announced the first gold pour from its Goose gold mine in Nunavut, Canada, as scheduled. The company reported that ore was first introduced to the Goose processing plant on June 24, 2025, and the mill has been running consistently at 50% of nameplate capacity during this initial phase, according to Scotiabank.
Threats
- Australia cut its commodity export forecast, as surging gold prices failed to offset weakness in iron ore and natural gas. Total resource and energy export earnings fell about 7% to A$385 billion ($252 billion) in the 12 months through June, according to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. Meanwhile, Australia’s largest superannuation fund, managing $365 billion, is rotating out of financial stocks into the underperforming commodities sector.
- Precious metals refiner Heraeus notes that “supply slipped to start the year.” Tightness in platinum supply may have driven the price breakout above $1,150/ounce, but easing pressure on the supply side is likely why platinum prices are forecast to trend lower in H2 2025.
- Santana’s feasibility update for Bendigo Ophir shows lower gold volumes, 30% higher costs, but reduced upfront capital expenditure. While RBC views the update negatively, the staged pit approach offers flexibility for expansion once the mine becomes operational.
