July 15, 2025
1. Does US government debt matter? Well, even if the Trump administration was able to create truly spectacular growth with its policies (unlikely but possible), it would still take decades to reduce the size of the debt significantly.
2. By then, the Chinese celebratory approach to gold will have overwhelmed the Western “jettison gold on good news” approach… and many Americans could be celebrating the death knell for their government’s debt… by buying lots of gold.
3. Perhaps Ronnie Reagan should have promoted saving jars of real gold jelly beans, rather than buckets of red debt candy? In China, it’s clear that the young citizens are savers, and their favourite vehicle to save is gold!
4. Western parents should embrace this wise savings program for their children as well, and I’ll dare to suggest that it’s only a matter of time before that occurs.
5. In the short term, the US CPI report is scheduled for 8:30AM release today and on that note…
6. A lot of the tariffs have been cancelled/delayed before actually being implemented. That means the much-anticipated rise in inflation hasn’t occurred.
7. While a lot of Trump’s tariff tax tantrums have been more bark than bite, some of them are real… and it appears that more are in the works.
8. The bottom line: I’ve talked about a semi-rare seasonal inversion event for gold and silver, where rather than swooning from April to October, there’s a consolidation and then a surge higher.
9. This scenario is in sync with the rollout of the tariff taxes; it’s likely that the brunt of the inflationary pain begins later in the summer, and it could help create quite a spectacular October month finale for the metals and mining stocks rally!
10. China’s industrial growth is improving without much “stimulus” (money printing and debt) from the government and central bank… yet.
11. The Chinese Gmen (government) are keen to hit their 5%+ GDP growth target for the year. It’s becoming more likely that they announce that stimulus around September.
12. The timing would boost the odds of the economy hitting the 5% target and could also counter a tariff-themed dip in US growth that is likely to commence at the same time.
13. That’s a pretty bullish set-up for gold!
14. The technical action is in perfect sync with all the fundamentals highlighted above.
15. The technical target is $3600-$4000, with $3800 being the “meat and potatoes” of the target zone.
16. Interestingly, Morgan Stanley analysts have the same $3800 target, in almost the same time frame, and they sport a solid record when it comes to analysing gold.
17. What about white metals of platinum, palladium, and silver? Well, the first two are consolidating their gains and silver looks ready to charge at $45!
18. The strategy for this exciting metal is simple: Buy the current dip, buy more at $37.30, and buy even more at $35!
19. “Flagification” of the rally is in play; the price spurts higher, and then a flag pattern forms.
20. Then it spurts a bit higher again, and another flag forms. The price action is healthy… and bullish.
21. A somewhat frustrating sideways chop is in play.
22. A move above $55 should usher in a surge to $60, and that would likely boost the morale of most gold stock investors.
23. It would also bring in more money manager interest and do it at a time when fading US growth concerns are mounting.
24. In a nutshell, the current gold, silver, and mining stocks market is much akin to that of the 1970s. Investors could buy all dips without fear then, and they can buy them all the same way now
Thanks!
Cheers
St
Stewart Thomson
Galactic Updates
