Bitcoin Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s RSI registered a lower high on March 31, a bearish divergence that requires a corresponding lower low in price to confirm. Although BTC closed back above recently lost support, our base case remains a final capitulation dump before transitioning into a sustainable accumulation phase.
Ethereum Performance and Correlation
Ethereum has outperformed in the short term, breaking above key overhead resistance and pushing its daily RSI above the prior lower-high threshold. ETH/BTC also pierced long-term resistance twice in quick succession. Despite this momentum, we expect ETH to eventually retrace alongside Bitcoin’s broader sell-off.
Dominance Metrics Signal Further Weakness
Combined stablecoin dominance completed a “bump and run” pullback to confirm broken resistance as new support, setting the stage for a rise toward 13% that often coincides with market capitulation. Bitcoin dominance remains firmly bearish below the daily TBO Cloud, while Ethereum dominance loses steam following recent FUD. Top-10 altcoin dominance continues its downtrend, reinforcing elevated risk.
The TOTALES index lost support within its bear flag on March 27, wicked above both historical support and short-term resistance on April 1, and now shows a lower high in RSI—pointing to an imminent lower low.
Macro Markets React to Geopolitical Tensions
President Trump’s remarks on Iran drove the US Dollar Index up 0.4% after retesting its bull flag and tagging the daily TBO Fast line. USD/JPY rallied amid renewed BOJ intervention concerns. Equities—including the S&P 500, NASDAQ and futures—bounced to their TBO Fast lines before reversing lower, mirroring NVDA and TSLA’s tag-and-fade patterns. The VIX remains elevated near 25 in its rejection zone, underscoring persistent risk aversion.
The USBCOI reading of 52.7 ordinarily signals bullish contrarian conditions, yet markets remain under pressure.
Commodities: Oil, Gold, Silver and Beyond
Brent crude surged nearly 6% on back-to-back TBT bearish divergences, while gold marginally exceeded its daily TBO Fast line only to reverse lower amid the energy rally. Silver similarly tagged its Fast line before pulling back, validating the proprietary indicator’s influence. Uranium has bounced within its bull-flag channel, and PAXG/BTC’s hidden bullish divergence from March 26 points toward a potential ascent to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement ahead of Bitcoin’s expected drop.
Altcoin Market Overview
XRP and SOL are retreating to February lows after losing TBO support, with ZEC and SUI also at risk of testing long-term floors. HYPE and ZRO have registered TBO Close Long signals, whereas CC’s weekend pump fully retraced. RIVER confirmed a TBO Open Short and PIPPIN may squeeze shorts with an irrational rally. M has outperformed as capital seeks refuge, but broad altcoin behavior remains consistent with bear-market exhaustion and sporadic rebounds.
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