(Kitco NewWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as a sharp retreat in crude oil reduced immediate inflation pressure while investors positioned for this week’s Federal Reserve decision. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,083.00 an ounce, up 0.77%, while spot silver was trading at $58.740, up 1.21% on the session.
Gold and silver both opened the week with safe-haven and short-covering support after the weekend pause in U.S.-Iran hostilities. The move was uneven. Gold traded through $4,100 overnight but could not hold the level, while silver briefly pushed back toward $60 before easing below that round-number resistance. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, noted that investors reduced their “flight to safety” dollar exposure after the pause in hostilities, helping trigger gains for both metals.
US interest rates remain the main macro risk for gold, with the FOMC decision due Wednesday. Fed funds pricing still shows a material risk of another hike this week, but expectations have eased from late Friday, keeping gold supported as Treasury yields retreat from last week’s highs. The broader 2026 path remains the bigger issue for bullion: markets are still pricing a serious chance of additional tightening by year-end, which caps rallies above $4,100 by supporting real yields and the dollar. However, any signal that policymakers are leaning toward a pause after July would weaken interest rate headwind, leaving gold more exposed to safe-haven demand tied to Hormuz, oil and geopolitical risk.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical input for energy, inflation expectations and haven demand. U.S. and Iran strikes have paused, Iran has denied direct talks with Washington and Tehran has confirmed discussions with Oman on mechanisms to reopen the strait. The market reaction has been a partial risk-premium unwind rather than a full normalization trade: crude sold off hard, Treasury yields eased and gold held a bid, but tanker risk around Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb corridor remains high enough to keep bullion supported on dips.
U.S. data were softer than expected at the start of the week. June durable-goods orders rose 0.3% to $334.8 billion after a revised 4.0% May decline, below expectations for a stronger rebound. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%, while orders excluding defense increased 0.3%. The data kept the focus on whether the Fed leans on still-elevated inflation or gives more weight to softer growth signals after the oil pullback.
Global risk appetite improved as the oil spike faded. U.S. stock futures were higher before the open, with the S&P 500 contract up roughly 0.8%, while European oil majors traded lower as Brent moved back below last week’s $100 area. Traders are watching the FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, followed by Thursday’s PCE inflation and Q2 GDP releases.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $84.18 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $90.78. The U.S. dollar index is slightly softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,150 to $4,200 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,350 and then $5,000. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000, with deeper downside targets at $3,900 and then $3,800. First resistance is seen at $4,150 and then at $4,200. First support is seen at $4,000 and then at $3,900.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.00 to $64.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.00, with deeper downside targets at $50.00 and then $45.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $64.00. Next support is seen at $55.00 and then at $50.00.
