- Gold prices were on track for a weekly gain Friday as a shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire provided support, though investors remained cautious ahead of crucial talks this weekend.
- A softer U.S. dollar is supporting prices, but upside momentum is limited amid the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.
- Gold's price action is being driven by geopolitical headlines and changing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.
- U.S. consumer prices rose in March at the fastest pace in nearly four years, driven by higher oil prices from the war and lingering tariff pass-through.
- Persistent inflation limits central banks' room to cut rates; gold, though a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, loses appeal in a high-rate environment because it yields nothing.
- The February PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% month‑over‑month and 3.0% year‑over‑year both in line with the expectations, with the Y/Y rate easing from January’s 3.1%.
- Gold demand in India rose slightly ahead of a key festival despite high prices damping sentiment, while premiums in China narrowed.
- Crude prices fell this week after recently spiking toward $120 a barrel, following weeks around $100 a barrel.
Spot gold rose 0.40% to $4,784.41 an ounce by 11:09 ET (13:09 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,807.50 an ounce.
Gold is a go-to during geopolitical turmoil but earns no yield, making it less appealing when interest rates are high.
CME FedWatch:
Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75
- CME FedWatch April no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 98.40% now from 86.2% on March 10, 2026.
Fed Rate Probability
As of March 20, 2026
As of Today
- CME FedWatch latest Fed rate probability points at no rate cut until mid-2027. What a change!!!
Technical Analysis Perspective:
Gold / US Dollar:
- Spot gold rebounded from a four-month low of $4,099 on March 23, 2026, triggering a relief rally that eased oversold technicals.
- Prices are hovering near horizontal resistance between $4,765 and $4,870 — the zone that initiated the March drop.
- A renewed wave of selling below that resistance could target $4,530–$4,525.
- Alternatively, price may grind sideways within $4,765–$4,870 before any subsequent decline.
Gold daily chart:
Gold/Silver Ratio:
- The gold–silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver buy one ounce of gold (gold ÷ silver), a key relative-value metric.
- The ratio is trading in a 56–69 range, within March's monthly range, implying range-bound action for both metals before a potential sell-off in coming weeks.
- A rising ratio typically indicates relative weakness in silver versus gold.
Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly chart:
Gold/Silver Ratio vs US Interest Rate Monthly chart:
- US interest rates and the gold–silver ratio move inversely.
- Falling rates tend to push the ratio higher.
- Rising rates tend to push the ratio lower.
- Stable rates usually produce a range-bound ratio.
Gold Feb – April Price Action Seasonality Monthly Chart:
- Since 2006, gold has typically weakened from February through April, with exceptions in 2011, 2024 and 2025.
- A large sell-off in March suggests additional weakness may follow in April 2026.
- The chart’s blue-shaded area highlights February–April for each year from 2006–2026.
- Watch how seasonality unfolds in April 2026.
Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly Twitter “@twtlearning.”
