To predict silver price performance in a recession, look to copper – StoneX’s Rhona O’Connell

New bans on Russian metals mean China will buy low and sell high to supply the U.S., Europe, and UK

Gold rockets above $2,400 as commodities catch fire, analysts see no end in sight

‘Cold War 2.0’ just one reason why gold will outperform silver, base metals in H2 2024 – Bloomberg’s McGlone

Gold the best hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, price will rise 16% to $2,700 by year-end – Goldman Research

Precious metals should shine in H2 2024 based on seasonal trends, summer price gains should be strong – MKS PAMP

Wall Street retreats to the sidelines ahead of the Fed, Main Street breaks bearish after gold tests $4,000/oz

Gold's inflation problem could become its next bullish trigger

Gold and silver prices crash explained: What happens next

Precious metals firm as crude slides, stocks rise on U.S.-Iran talks - Kitco PM Report

TORONTO, June 12 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged ‌lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as oil prices fell on signs of progress toward a peace deal in the Middle East, with the currency adding to its weekly ​decline.The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3975 per U.S. dollar, ​or 71.56 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3959 ⁠to 1.3995. On Thursday, the currency touched its weakest level since November ​at 1.4023, while it was down 0.3% since the start of the week. The ​Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for a fifth straight time and said it was seeing limited evidence that higher energy prices were fueling ​broad-based inflation.Investors were pricing in 24 basis points of tightening by the ​end of the year from the BoC, down from 37 basis points before Wednesday's rate decision, ‌swap ⁠market data showed."The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a U.S.-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this year," Stephen Brown, ​chief North America ​economist at Capital ⁠Economics, said in a note.The U.S. dollar was little changed against a basket of major currencies after sliding the previous day, ​as traders awaited confirmation that a deal in the Middle ​East could ⁠be imminent.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was trading 3.8% lower at $84.38 a barrel. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries a fifth ⁠of ​global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has ​been extremely limited as a result of the war.Canadian government bond yields were mixed across the curve, ​with the 10-year unchanged at 3.409%.Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci

Canadian dollar extends weekly decline as oil falls on Mideast peace deal hopes

Gold holds key $4,000 support as analysts watch for signs of a bottom

WASHINGTON, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment bounced off record lows in early June as easing gasoline prices offered households some relief, though concerns about inflation stoked by the Middle East ​conflict lingered.Lower-income households led the broad improvement in sentiment reported by the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers on Friday. Gasoline prices have ‌dropped from four-year highs over the past three weeks, according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA, as oil prices stayed below $100 a barrel despite a fragile ceasefire.Labor market resilience, marked by three consecutive months of above-expectations job growth and a stable unemployment rate, also likely contributed to the increase in the sentiment. But the U.S.-led war against Iran, now in its fourth month, still poses a risk to ​the economic outlook.President Donald Trump denied on Friday that the United States had made major concessions to Iran. Trump on Thursday called off new strikes on Iran saying ​a deal had been reached."It looks like gasoline prices peaked around the Memorial Day holiday as often happens each year," said ⁠Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "There is still a cost-of-living crisis and goods prices are not going to be coming back down. The economic risks are still out there ​but at least the outlook is less dire than it was before."The University of Michigan said its Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 48.9 this month from an all-time low ​of 44.8 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index climbing to 46.0. Sentiment increased across age groups, education and political party affiliation.The national average retail gasoline price dropped to $4.11 this week from $4.56 on May 21, the highest in four years, AAA data showed. The pain at the pump has disproportionately hurt lower-income households, with higher-income consumers cushioned by a stock market rally, which is ​boosting their wealth."Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets," said Joanne Hsu, the director ​of the Surveys of Consumers. "Consumers remain focused on kitchen table issues.They feel burdened by the recent escalation in inflation and worry that higher inflation could remain stubborn going forward, particularly in ‌the short run."INFLATION ⁠EXPECTATIONS MODERATEThe higher cost of living is fueling unhappiness with Trump's handling of the economy, and weighing on his approval rating. Consumer inflation jumped above 4% in May for the first time in three years, the government reported this week.Stocks on Wall Street traded higher. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.Easing gasoline prices led to a moderation in consumers' inflation expectations this month, though the conflict will determine the future trajectory."We expect inflation pressures to ease after the Iran conflict simmers and the subsequent ​improvement in supply chains," said Jeffrey Roach, ​chief economist at LPL Financial. "But if the ⁠conflict in Iran remains throughout the summer, we should expect stronger inflation headwinds will put a damper on the growth trajectory."The survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year slipped to a still-high 4.6% this month from 4.8% in May. ​Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years dropped to 3.4% from 3.9% last month.High inflation has dashed hopes for ​an interest rate cut ⁠from the Federal Reserve this year, with financial markets pricing in monetary policy tightening. Economists believe the bar for a rate hike is high, in the absence of widespread energy-related price increases. TheU.S. central bank is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range next Wednesday, but abandon its easing bias.Economists said Fed officials were likely to ⁠shrug off ​the drop in inflation expectations, noting that respondents in the University of Michigan Survey anticipated higher borrowing ​costs over the next year."This level of medium-term inflation expectations was seen as a factor in the rapid pace of Fed hikes that began in June 2022 and a 3.4% reading should not be interpreted as ​a sign that the public is no longer worried about inflation," said John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital.Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci

US consumer sentiment pushes off record lows as gasoline prices ease

Gold demand in India improved slightly this week as softer prices drew in jewellery buyers even as caution prevailed, while premiums in China eased.Gold prices in India dropped to their lowest since April 2 at 146,444 rupees per 10 grams on Thursday, and are down 1.5% for the week so far.Demand improved as the recent price correction drew buyers back, particularly those for jewellery purchases, said Chanda Venkatesh, managing director at CapsGold, a bullion merchant based in the southern city of Hyderabad.Dealers quoted discounts of up to $35 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 15% import and 3% sales levies, down from last week’s discounts of up to $87.While jewellers have started restocking, purchases remain measured as confidence in retail demand for the coming months is still weak, said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank.Last month, the South Asian country raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6% as part of efforts to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves from higher oil prices. India’s physically backed gold exchange-traded funds logged their first net monthly outflow in a year in May, as investors booked profits following a sharp rise in prices triggered by higher import duties.In top consumer China, bullion traded at premiums of $1 to $5 an ounce over the global benchmark price, down from $7 to $10 premiums last week.“The $4,000 mark for gold was a good support level, and hence we can see some fresh buying interest,” said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals.Spot gold hit an over six-month low of $4,022.29 on Thursday before closing higher, and is on track for a weekly loss. Meanwhile, China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for a 19th month in May, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Sunday.In Hong Kong, gold traded between par and a $1.90 premium, while in Japan, it was sold at a discount of $0.50.In Singapore, gold was sold between a $0.50 discount and a $2 premium.(By Pablo Sinha and Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Eileen Soreng)

India gold demand ticks up as prices slip; China premiums ease

Zimbabwe’s state-owned gold mining company Mutapa Gold Resources plans to double its annual output to 220,000 ounces by 2029 after securing funding for an expansion project, according to production reports made available to reporters on Friday.Mutapa, the country’s biggest gold producer, had output of 104,626 ounces in the financial year to March 31, according to the documents, a 10% decline from the year before mainly due to lower grades.The company said it had secured $75 million from Zimbabwean banks, half the funding requirements for its Shamva Hill open pit project, which will raise the mine’s output to nearly 80,000 ounces annually from about 24,000 ounces currently.Work on the Shamva project, about 100 km (62.14 miles) north-west of Harare, will begin in August, and Mutapa is negotiating with foreign lenders for the balance of the project’s capital requirements, it added.The rest of the additional production will come from a capacity expansion at the company’s Jena mine, where work is expected to start in the final quarter of 2026, improved output at its Freda Rebecca mine, and moves to incorporate material from artisanal miners.Mutapa, owned by Zimbabwe’s sovereign wealth fund, is key to the country’s ambitions to raise gold output. The country is targeting 50 metric tons of production this year from last year’s record 46.7 tons.Gold is Zimbabwe’s top foreign currency earner, with export sales reaching $1.19 billion in the first quarter of 2026, against $579 million during the same period last year.Zimbabwe earned $4.61 billion from gold exports in 2025, nearly half of the country’s total exports of $9.7 billion.(Reporting by Chris Takudzwa Muronzi; Editing by Jan Harvey)

Zimbabwe’s state gold miner plans to double output by 2029 as expansion projects take off

China sees ETF outflows, falling wholesale demand in May, but PBoC continues outsized purchases amid lower prices – WGC’s Jia  

Chinese copper smelters are buying more feedstock that contains little copper but lots of sulphur to cash in on lucrative margins from sulphuric acid sales that have helped counter losses from tumbling processing fees, industry sources and analysts said.At least six smelters in China, the world’s largest refined copper producer, including Jinchuan Group, have stepped up purchases of pyrite this year, said multiple sources with knowledge of the matter.Pyrite, also known as “fool’s gold” due to its shiny, yellow appearance similar to real gold, is a sulphur-rich mineral usually contained at low levels in the concentrate smelting process.Once an unimportant byproduct of copper smelting, sulphuric acid has soared in price more than 500% in three years, underpinned by tighter supply due to the Russia-Ukraine war and growing demand for electric-vehicle batteries.Iran war fuels price rallySmelters are now opting to process more pyrite to capitalize on a price rally fuelled by the Iran war, which has disrupted shipments from the Gulf, which typically supplies about half of the world’s seaborne sulphur.The 1,500 yuan ($222) per metric ton profit estimated by consultancy Oilchem from a ton of sulphuric acid offsets the loss incurred when processing a ton of concentrate bought on the spot market, which was running at about $115 last week, according to data from Argus.This new strategy, which also gives smelters something to feed their furnaces while concentrate is in acutely short supply and avoids expensive shutdowns, underscores how the increasing reliance on acid profits is changing copper markets amid a prolonged downturn in processing fees, traditionally a key source of revenue for smelters.“Years ago, it (buying pyrite) was a rare thing. But from 2026, more and more smelters are doing this … only acid is profitable now,” said a manager at a Chinese copper smelter on condition of anonymity because they and the other sources were not authorized to speak to media.China’s imports of unroasted pyrite jumped 13.5% year-on-year in January to April to 391,916 metric tons, the highest total for the first four months of a year since 2014, according to data from Trade Data Monitor.The volume is far below the 9.9 million tons of copper concentrate bought between January and April, but concentrate imports were down 0.8% versus last year and the pace of refined copper output growth slowed in April.Analysts say accelerating use of pyrite could mean less concentrate consumption and less copper output.Some smelters, however, say they are unable to process complex raw materials and are thus sitting out the race to secure pyrite.Diversification away from copper concentrate is also being hampered by technological constraints, but Chinese smelters have been making investments that allow them to feed in more pyrite and gold concentrate, said a trader at an international trading house.($1 = 6.7630 Chinese yuan)(By Amy Lv, Tom Daly and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Lewis Jackson and Jamie Freed)

China copper smelters chase ‘fool’s gold’ in hunt for more sulphuric acid profits

Brazil’s Vale, one of the world’s largest iron ore producers, said on Thursday it received a request from its top shareholder, pension fund Previ, for a shareholders’ meeting to vote on the removal of chairman Daniel Andre Stieler.Previ, which manages pensions for employees of state-run lender Banco do Brasil, proposed appointing Jose Mauricio Coelho to Vale’s board and backing current board member Manuel Oliveira as chairman, the miner said in a filing.According to Vale, Previ has argued that Oliveira will contribute to “the strengthening of governance practices, the improvement of strategic management and the alignment with the interests of shareholders and stakeholders.”The mining company did not release the document it received from Previ. The pension fund did not immediately respond to a request for comment, sent outside business hours.Vale said its board is assessing the steps required to convene the shareholders meeting.Previ holds about a 7% stake in Vale, according to regulatory documents. The fund swapped its own head last month, naming Marcio Antonio Chiumento as CEO after Joao Luiz Fukunaga resigned.Chiumento joined Vale’s board earlier this year.(By Andre Romani; Editing by Kylie Madry and Daina Beth Solomon)

Vale’s top shareholder pushes for meeting on chairman’s removal

NEW YORK/LONDON June 12 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities index rose on Friday and ​oil prices fell on fresh hopes for a peace deal between Iran and the U.S., while investors awaited the hotly anticipated market debut of Elon ‌Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O).Stocks had rallied sharply on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the countries were close to a deal. But, on Friday, terms of a proposed memorandum to end the war in the Gulf outlined by Western, Pakistani and Iranian sources on Friday appeared to strongly favour Iran, drawing criticism from Trump, who called the reports inaccurate.Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that an "Islamabad ​Memorandum of Understanding" for addressing the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran had "never been closer", but urged media outlets to refrain from speculating about its contents until ​it was finalised.U.S. Treasury yields rose while the dollar edged up in morning trading while stocks climbed back up from morning ⁠declines. While investors were hopeful for Middle East progress, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said they were anxious for details."You never know what ​the final details will be. You never know which side has the whole story. That's what markets have been really grappling with, not knowing who to believe," said ​the money manager who added that after the "really large pop" on Thursday, some investors were taking profits on Friday.Trump has repeatedly said a deal with Iran to end the war was close since mid-March. This time, the indication that diplomacy was continuing productively was enough for the market to latch on to, Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, said, "Today, I think ​the (potential for) peace is well under-priced."Northlight's Zaccarelli noted that Friday's other main focus for the market is the SpaceX IPO, which raised a record $75 billion, valuing the ​rocket and spacecraft manufacturer at $1.77 trillion and making Musk the world's first trillionaire."It's a barometer for overall risk appetite and the health of the market in general. So generally speaking, a positive ‌result on ⁠this specific IPO because it's so large and so high profile, does bode well for the broader market," he said.On Wall Street at 10:45 a.m. ET (1445 GMT) the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 225.95 points, or 0.45%, to 51,075.77, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) rose 4.13 points, or 0.06%, to 7,398.43 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 69.72 points, or 0.28%, to 25,736.91.MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 8.91 points, or 0.81%, to 1,108.46.The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index rose 1.46%. The European Central Bank had to raise interest rates ​for the first time in nearly three ​years on Thursday to nip war-driven ⁠inflation in the bud. Final inflation data from several European countries including France and Spain showed inflation accelerated in May, while official data showed Britain's economy contracted by 0.1% in April — its first monthly drop since August.In energy markets, oil futures were adding to Thursday's losses. U.S. ​crude fell 1.45% to $86.44 a barrel after touching its lowest level in almost two months. Brent fell to $89.19 per barrel, ​down 1.32% on the ⁠day after earlier falling to its lowest level in three months.In fixed income markets, U.S. Treasury yields rose from one-week lows as traders also looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, which will be first under the leadership of Kevin Warsh.In currencies, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and ⁠the euro, ​rose 0.05% to 99.78, with the euro down 0.05% at $1.1571.Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.21% ​to 160.25. Traders are still on high alert for intervention from Japanese authorities as the yen stays close to the 160 level that many see as a line in the sand.In precious metals, spot gold fell ​0.71% to $4,183.92 an ounce while spot silver fell 1.3% to $66.48 an ounce.Reporting by Sinéad Carew, Iain Withers, Stella Qiu; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kevin Buckland and Andrew Heavens

Stocks rise as oil slides on Gulf peace hopes, SpaceX market debut in focus

HARARE, June 12 (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's government said on Friday it will require cryptocurrency businesses to register and pay annual fees, ​as it seeks to bring the largely informal market under regulatory ‌oversight.Businesses involved in buying, selling, transferring or safeguarding virtual assets must register each year with the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), an anti-money laundering body housed within the central bank, under ​regulations issued by Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube.Registration will cost $500 per year, ​and operating without it is now an offence.CRYPTO USE IN ⁠ZIMBABWEThe regulations are Zimbabwe's first dedicated rules for a sector that has ​long operated without a legal framework, largely underground. The government banned financial institutions ​from trading cryptocurrency in 2018, pushing traders onto peer-to-peer platforms and social media.Hyperinflation in the late 2000s wiped out savings and pensions, while repeated currency changes eroded trust in ​the banking system, driving demand for Bitcoin and other digital currencies alternative ​stores of value and means of transfer outside the formal system.Remittances have fuelled adoption, with ‌banks ⁠being the most expensive transfer channel, according to the World Bank's Remittance Prices Worldwide report.Zimbabwe's move comes amid a broader global push to regulate cryptocurrencies following a series of high-profile exchange failures, fraud cases and concerns over money ​laundering.It joins a growing ​number of ⁠African countries, including South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Mauritius, that have moved to regulate digital assets as crypto use ​across the continent surges.Sub-Saharan Africa received more than $205 billion in ​on-chain value - ⁠the total dollar value of cryptocurrency transactions recorded on blockchains - between July 2024 and June 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase, according to the Chainalysis 2025 Global ⁠Crypto ​Adoption Index."This is a welcome development ... It's also ​good for traders that they don't have to operate underground," Jeffrey Mutambiranwa, a Harare crypto trader, ​told Reuters.Reporting by Chris Takudzwa Muronzi and Colleen Goko. Editing by Mark Potter

Zimbabwe moves to regulate cryptocurrency sector

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - Expectations for U.S. monetary tightening and a strong dollar have ​taken some wind out of the "perfect storm" powering an upswing in gold since 2023, leaving prices in vulnerable ‌territory around $4,000 per ounce as the interest rate backdrop unfolds.Gold's reversal has raised questions over the longevity of its record-breaking rally even as geopolitical risk, fiscal deficits and central bank buying continue to support the longer-term case for bullion.After hitting a record $5,595 in January, spot gold has fallen 25%, ​as the Iran war spurred an oil-price rally and boosted bets on rate hikes. That has curbed bullion's safe-haven appeal — consistent ​with past extreme shocks — and drove prices to a six-month low on Thursday."In the very short ⁠term, the market has to digest the risk of a Fed hike and a stronger dollar," said Aakash Doshi, head ​of gold and metals strategy at State Street Investment Management.Doshi sees scope for gold to bounce if the Middle East conflict eases ​and oil falls to $80 a barrel. Longer term, gold could revert to being a safe haven as fiscal deficits balloon and if the fallout from the Iran conflict leads to fragmented geopolitics. KEY TECHNICAL BREAKGold was at $4,188 per troy ounce on Friday, having touched its lowest level since November at $4,022 ​on Thursday.Strong U.S. jobs data last week lifted rate-hike bets and sent gold below its 200-day moving average for the first ​time in 2-1/2 years.That closely watched key technical level — now acting as resistance at $4,446 — suggests that the dynamic of the market has changed, one ‌precious ⁠metals trader said. Gold surged 64% in 2025, the most in 46 years. The metal's record run higher in recent years was driven by strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand as investors sought to mitigate risks tied to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, Federal Reserve independence and Russia's war in Ukraine."While analysts were fixated on Trump's new world disorder, it now seems that last ​year's huge gains were driven ​in good part by rate-cut ⁠expectations," said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.Managed short positions on COMEX gold were at the lowest since January 2025 in the week to June 2, leaving plenty of ​scope for bearish bets to build up, according to Ash. Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper estimates ​that at least ⁠270 tons of gold in exchange-traded funds are in loss-making territory at prices below $4,250.At $4,000, that number will rise to 298 tons. Outflows from gold-backed ETFs totalled 16 tons in May and 7 tons in the first week of June.While investors are sidelined, physical demand ⁠is seasonally ​sluggish with bullion trading at a deep discount in India.Nicky Shiels, head of metals ​strategy at MKS PAMP, expects gold prices to be rangebound over the next few months "before more strategic tailwinds and catalysts emerge".Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Pratima Desai and Susan Fenton

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