Analysts at Magyar Bankholding said in a note that volatility could increase in Central European currency markets this week as both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold rate metings, which will have implications for the region. The region's currencies have been helped by lower gas prices in recent weeks. "Correlation between CEE currencies and European gas prices has increased substantially since Q4 2022," Citigroup said in a note.
The Czech bank meets to decide on interest rates later this week and is widely seen holding rates steady for a fifth straight meeting after taking the key policy to a more than two-decade high last year. The Czech crown was just off 14-year highs hit last week, trading flat at 23.815 to the euro.
"(And) the National Bank of Hungary is likely to keep its hawkishness for longer until the CPI peaks," Citigroup added.
Hungary's annual inflation was running at 24.5% in December and is expected to accelerate further in January.
CEE SNAPSHO AT
MARKETS T 0938
CET
CURRENC
IES
Latest Previou Daily Change s
bid close change in 2023
EURCZK Czech <EURCZK 23.8150 23.8100 -0.02% +1.44%
= crown =>
EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF 392.450 389.050 -0.87% +1.78%
= forint => 0 0
EURPLN Polish <EURPLN 4.7065 4.7040 -0.05% -0.36%
= zloty =>
EURRON Romanian <EURRON 4.9020 4.8935 -0.17% +0.83%
= leu =>
EURHRK Croatian <EURHRK 7.5330 7.5365 +0.05% +0.05%
= kuna =>
EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD 117.320 117.340 +0.02% -0.02%
= dinar => 0 0
Note: calculated from 1800
daily CET
change
Latest Previou Daily Change s
close change in 2023
.PX Prague 1330.10 1331.01 -0.07% +10.68
00 %
.BUX Budapest 46040.3 46645.4 -1.30% +5.13%
0 1
.WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1891.81 1911.50 -1.03% +5.57%
>
.BETI Buchares 12197.0 12185.7 +0.09% +4.57%
t 2 9
.SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 1117.06 1111.48 +0.50% +6.51%
P a P>
.BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 848.85 852.41 -0.42% +2.94%
15 15>
.SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 615.16 614.04 +0.18% +2.27%
>
Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republic
CZ2YT= 2-year <CZ2YT= 6.0120 0.1870 +337bp +13bps
RR RR> s
CZ5YT= 5-year <CZ5YT= 4.9440 -0.0220 +262bp -9bps
RR RR> s
CZ10YT <CZ10YT 4.5720 0.0510 +227bp -1bps
=RR 10-year =RR> s
Poland
PL2YT= 2-year <PL2YT= 5.9430 0.0480 +330bp -1bps
RR RR> s
PL5YT= 5-year <PL5YT= 5.8480 0.0400 +353bp -2bps
RR RR> s
PL10YT <PL10YT 5.8800 0.0850 +358bp +3bps
=RR 10-year =RR> s
FORWARD
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech <CZKFRA 7.17 6.93 6.38 7.21 Rep ><PRIBO
R=>
Hungary <HUFFRA 14.69 13.01 11.59 16.03 ><BUBOR
=>
Poland <PLNFRA 6.98 6.92 6.46 6.94 ><WIBOR
=>
Note: are for ask
FRA prices
quotes
********************************************
******************
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Krisztina Than in
Budapest; Editing by Christina Fincher)
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