TREASURIES-Yields hover near 3-week highs following cooling wage, housing data

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
(Adds quote, adds consumer confidence data, updates prices) By David Randall NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields inched down from nearly 3-week highs on Tuesday following economic data that showed slowing wage growth and a cooling housing market. The Employment Cost Index rose 1% in the fourth quarter, down from a peak of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022, while wages and salaries grew 1% compared to 1.3% in the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Home prices, meanwhile, rose 6.8% in November compared with the same time last year, and slowed from the 8.7% gain in October, according the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price composite index of 20 metropolitan areas. Rising wages and housing costs have been chief concerns of the Federal Reserve in its battle with inflation. The central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% and 4.75% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday.


"All eyes are on the Fed this week and the Street's expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike. Investors will keenly listen to Chairman Powell's comments for any indication of the Fed wavering from its aggressively hawkish stance," said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler.


Consumer confidence, meanwhile, came in at 107.1 in January, below both consensus estimates of 109 and the revised December reading of 109, according to the Conference Board.


Tuesday's economic releases offered a "mixed round of information concerning the mindset of the consumer to start the new year, and one that demonstrates the headwinds facing households at this stage," said Benjamin Jeffery, a strategist on the U.S. Rates Strategy Team at BMO Capital Markets.


The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.5 basis points to 3.536%. Yields had been down as much as 5.3 basis points earlier in the session. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 1.2 basis points to 3.672%. Yields had dipped 3 basis points earlier in the day.


A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -68.6 basis points.


The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 3.5 basis points at 4.226%.


January 31 Tuesday 10:22AM New York / 1522 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 4.58 4.6986 0.038 Six-month bills 4.66 4.8387 -0.010 Two-year note 99-208/256 4.2238 -0.037 Three-year note 99-216/256 3.931 -0.037 Five-year note 99-82/256 3.65 -0.033 Seven-year note 99-96/256 3.6018 -0.025 10-year note 104-204/256 3.5401 -0.011 20-year bond 102-176/256 3.8051 0.014 30-year bond 105-216/256 3.6753 0.015
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS


Last (bps) Net


Change


(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 27.50 -0.25
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 13.75 -0.75
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 5.25 -0.75
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap -2.50 -0.25
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -39.25 -1.50
spread



(Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Andrea Ricci)

Messaging: david.randall.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.