The rupee fell over 1% on Monday on the back of the U.S. jobs report. Since then, the currency has received a bit of help from expectations that the Reserve Bank of India will likely prevent the rupee from falling below the 82.90-83.00 level.
"Continued FPI (foreign portfolio investors) equity outflows could contribute to pushing USD/INR higher and near to the 83 level, where we expect more USD sale by RBI," DBS Group said in a note.
"Such flows (dollar sales by RBI) would put downward pressures on forward points and INR implied rates." Foreign investors have taken out more than $4 billion from Indian equities year-to-date. The 1-year USD/INR forward implied yield fell to 2.08% earlier this week. The rupee's Asian peers declined on Friday, adding to its weekly losses. An overnight fall in U.S. shares and a further rise in U.S. yields dented demand for Asian currencies.
The 2-year U.S. yield is now about 46 basis points from its recent lows. The U.S. jobs report has prompted investors to raise the Federal Reserve terminal rate expectations by about 35 basis points to 5.15%. U.S. yields rose despite a higher-than-expected increase in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits.
The Korean won and the Thai baht were down 0.3% while Hong
Kong led Asian shares lower.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.66;
onshore one-month forward premium at 12.50 paise
** USD/INR NSE Feb futures settled on Thursday at 82.61
** USD/INR forward premium at 6.5 paise
** Dollar index up at 103.24
** Brent crude futures at $84.5 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.67%
** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.5% at 17,840
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $55.2mln worth
of Indian shares on Feb. 8
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $150.9mln worth
of Indian bonds on Feb. 8
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; editing by Eileen Soreng)
