CEE ECONOMY-Hungary slips into recession as inflation begins to weigh

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
March 2 (Reuters) - Falling investment hurt Hungary's economy in the fourth quarter as it slipped into a technical recession, a breakdown of the data showed on Thursday, with high interest rates and inflation hitting growth in central Europe. Hungary has followed the Czech Republic into a shallow recession in the last half of 2022, while Poland's economy also contracted in the fourth quarter. Pressure is set to stay on the region in the beginning of the year. Hungary's economy, facing the highest inflation in the region at a rate of more than 20%, fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of last year, updated statistics office data showed.


Gross capital formation showed the biggest drop on a quarterly basis, while exports also decreased.


"The declining purchasing power of households has not really hit the economy so far, as opposed to high interest rates and delayed or scrapped investments," ING economist Peter Virovacz said.


"We expect high inflation to exert the strongest drag on the economy in the first quarter of 2023, meaning that the technical recession in the Hungarian economy can last three quarters." Hungary's central bank left interest rates, including its base rate at 13%, unchanged on Tuesday, defying government pressure to cut borrowing costs as the economy slows. Economic Development Minister Marton Nagy, a former central bank deputy governor and Prime Minister Viktor Orban's top economic aide, called current rate levels "extremely onerous" for the economy. The bank has warned the disinflation process would be slow. Economists, though, have forecast there was room to cut the base rate by up to 250 basis points by the end of the year.
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Gergely Szakacs in Budapest; Editing by Jan Harvey)

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