Futures are now pricing a peak Fed rate of 5.10%, almost 50 bps lower from its recent peak and are looking at 40 bps of rate cuts this year. The 2-year U.S. yield is at 4.46%, having reached 5.08% last Wednesday.
"Nervousness around the impact of high rates has spiked with SVB's collapse," DBS Group Research said in a note.
"In a matter of days, markets have lurched from predicting a 50 bps hike to 25 bps in the March Fed meeting." U.S. regulators stepped in to contain a wider fallout from SVB's failure. Customers will have access to their deposits beginning on Monday, the U.S. Treasury, the Fed, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said in a statement. The Fed announced a new lending program to provide funding to banks. U.S. equity futures jumped in Asia on the back of these announcements. The dollar index extended losses and Asian currencies rallied between 0.5% to 1.4%. In "all of this turmoil", the U.S. jobs report has been "pushed to a side note"," a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. The U.S. economy added more jobs in February than economists had expected. For the rupee, the 81.60-82.30 range should play out this week, the trader added.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.04;
onshore one-month forward premium at 18.75 paise
** USD/INR NSE March futures settled on Friday at 82.1425
** USD/INR March forward premium Mar. 10 at 7 paise
** Dollar index down at 103.92
** Brent crude futures at $82.8 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.68%
** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures marginally lower at
17,424
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $55.3mln worth
of Indian shares on Mar. 9
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $142.9mln worth
of Indian bonds on Mar. 9
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
