As forecast by a Reuters poll, the ECB raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis point (bps) to 3%, its highest level since late 2008.
But over the past few days, money markets had started to price in the possibility of a 25 bps move amid concerns over the banking sector. "The ECB hike has come as somewhat of a surprise, especially given the events of the last few days. The problem being that European banks were forced to load up on bonds in order to meet capital requirements, and the higher interest rates go, the less these bonds are worth, so hence the negative reaction here," said Michael Field, European Equity Strategist at Morningstar.
An index of euro zone banks fell by as much as 1.2% to its lowest since Jan. 2 in the minutes after the decision. After five consecutive monthly gains, the index is now set for its biggest monthly drop since the first COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. Underscoring the febrile state of markets, however, euro zone banks later recovered ground, with the index closing up 1.35%. The ECB lifted its growth outlook for the euro area and said the region's banks were in a much stronger position than they were during the 2008 financial crisis. "Central banks have a real dilemma that they have a core mandate, which is inflation. But there's also a challenge now post-SVB and given banking volatility," said Justin Onuekwusi, Head Of Emea Retail Investments at Legal & General Investment Management in London. "We have seen volatility and likely to see greater volatility". Ratings agency Moody's said on Thursday Europe's banking systems remained in fundamentally good health. Having a lower proportion of their assets in bonds means Europe's lenders are less exposed to fluctuating interest rates than their U.S. counterparts, Nick Hill, a managing director at Moody's, told investors and reporters.
INSTABILITY
The ECB has raised interest rates since July at its fastest pace on record to curb inflation. It had effectively promised another 50 bps increase for Thursday and signalled further moves in the months ahead.
"The rising systemic risk investors have endured over the past five days does not make the ECB flinch," said Florian Ielpo, head of macro and multi asset at Lombard Odier Asset Management in Geneva. "Inflation remains too high to be ignored and the risk to unwind what the ECB has started is worth the resulting financial instability for now," he added.
The euro's reaction to the decision was fairly muted. It was last trading 0.35% higher on the day at $1.0616. On Wednesday, the currency hit its lowest against the U.S. dollar since early January, at $1.0516.
Germany's 2-year bond yield initially fell after the central bank decision. It was last up 22 bps on the day to 2.5820%.
Euro zone government bond yields and the single currency had
already rebounded earlier on Thursday after Credit Suisse said
it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to
shore up liquidity and restore investor confidence.
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(Reporting by Joice Alves; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Mark
Potter)
