TABLE-Japanese firms see global inflation, recession as major risks in fiscal 2023

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
By Rocky Swift TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) - Japanese firms see a continuation of global inflation and the chance of worldwide recession as the main risks they face in fiscal 2023, according to a Reuters monthly poll.


Below are the questions and answers in the poll, conducted from March 8-17 for Reuters by Nikkei Research. Answers are denoted in percentages.


Percentage totals for a given question may not come to exactly 100%, due to rounding. The "polled" and "replied" figures are in absolute terms. A total of 493 companies responded to the latest survey.
1. What do you view as risks to your business in fiscal 2023? (Pick as many as apply) Continuation of Global Downside risks U.S. recession Rising interest Weak yen Strong yen global inflation recession to China's rates as BOJ


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All 82% 59% 28% 20% 18% 35% 7% Manufacturers 81% 67% 37% 26% 12% 33% 11% Non-manufacturers 84% 51% 17% 14% 26% 36% 3% (continued) Geopolitical risks, e.g. Pandemic US-China Other Polled Replied North Korea, Taiwan Strait confrontation
All 30% 13% 29% 4% 400 246 Manufacturers 33% 7% 38% 3% 200 129 Non-manufacturers 27% 20% 19% 5% 200 117
2. What is your expected dollar/yen exchange rate for fiscal 2023? (Pick one) 119 or below 120-125 126-130 131-135 136-140 141-145 146-150 151 or higher Polled Replied All 0% 9% 21% 48% 20% 1% 0 0 400 234 Manufacturers 1% 8% 25% 49% 16% 1% 0 0 200 122 Non-manufacturers 0% 10% 17% 47% 23% 2% 0 1 200 112 3. How would you prefer the yen to move, compared to the 136 level as of March 1? (Pick one) Moderate yen Moderate yen Significant yen Significant yen Neither way Polled Replied weakness strength weakness strength
All 14% 69% 0 2% 15% 400 239 Manufacturers 16% 66% 0 2% 17% 200 125 Non-manufacturers 11% 72% 1% 3% 13% 247 114
4. What is your expectation for the rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in fiscal 2023? (Pick one) 1% or less 1.1-1.5% 1.6-2.0% 2.1-2.5% 2.6-3.0% 3.1-3.5% 3.6% or higher Polled Replied All 4% 17% 34% 22% 15% 3% 3% 400 229 Manufacturers 4% 15% 38% 20% 15% 3% 3% 200 117 Non-manufacturers 4% 20% 29% 25% 15% 4% 4% 200 112 5. Is your company implementing or considering any measures to raise its price-to-book ratio (PBR) to 1 or higher? (Pick one) Implementing Considering Neither Polled Replied All 17% 32% 51% 400 241 Manufacturers 18% 37% 44% 200 126 Non-manufacturers 17% 26% 57% 200 115 6. For those who answered "implementing" or "considering", what are the specific measures? (Pick as many as apply) Share Dividend increase Policies to improve Investor relations, Other Polled Replied buybacks ROE, e.g., increasing communication


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All 48% 38% 66% 60% 3% 400 117 Manufacturers 41% 32% 72% 59% 0 200 69 Non-manufacturers 58% 46% 56% 60% 8% 200 48 7. What reasons do you think led to about half of traded Japanese firms with PBRs below 1? (Pick as many as apply) Economic Low Monetary Fiscal Growth Lack of Unique structural Other Polled Replied downturn in popularity policy policy strategy forward-looking factors, e.g.


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All 62% 48% 12% 14% 41% 39% 22% 4% 400 237 Manufacturers 62% 45% 8% 11% 47% 43% 21% 4% 200 124 Non-manufacturers 62% 51% 16% 16% 35% 35% 22% 4% 200 113
8. Will you increase capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 compared to the previous year? (Pick one) Yes No Keep unchanged Polled Replied All 44% 15% 41% 400 245 Manufacturers 44% 19% 37% 200 129 Non-manufacturers 45% 10% 45% 200 116 9. For those who answered "yes", what spending do you plan to focus on? (Pick as many as apply) Digitalisation Labour saving and Increase production Equipment Decarbonisation Strengthening Establish training Other Polled Replied efficiency measures facilities renewal procurement base facilities
All 50% 41% 49% 59% 19% 4% 3% 8% 400 109 Manufacturers 40% 49% 54% 58% 23% 7% 5% 7% 200 57 Non-manufacturers 62% 33% 42% 60% 15% 0 0 10% 200 52 10. How are current business conditions at your company? (Pick one) Good Not so good Bad Polled Replied All 22% 64% 13% 400 252 Manufacturers 14% 69% 17% 200 132 Non-manufacturers 31% 59% 10% 200 120 11. How do you expect business conditions to be by the end of June? (Pick one) Good Not so good Bad Polled Replied All 21% 71% 8% 400 252 Manufacturers 18% 73% 8% 200 132 Non-manufacturers 24% 68% 8% 200 120


(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Jan Harvey)

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