"The MPC stresses that achieving a tight monetary stance is a necessary condition to attain the CBE's upcoming inflation targets of 7% (± 2 percentage points) on average by 2024 Q4 and 5% (± 2 percentage points) on average by 2026 Q4," it said in a statement. Domestic supply chain disruptions, a depreciating Egyptian pound, demand side pressures "as evidenced by developments in real economic activity relative to potential capacity" and high broad money growth outturns fuelled inflation, the statement said.
Since last March, the Egyptian pound's official exchange rate has fallen by almost half, to around 30.87 pounds to the dollar, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed vulnerabilities in the country's finances, prompting a foreign exodus from its treasuries market.
On the black market it has sunk to between 35 and 36 to the dollar.
M2 money supply, which in Egypt includes deposits in foreign currency, grew by 31.6% year-on-year in January and 31.5% in February. At its last meeting on Feb. 2, the central bank left interest rates steady, saying 800 bps in rate hikes put in place over the previous year would help to tame inflation, which in December had accelerated to a five-year high of 21.3%.
The MPC statement said gross domestic product had slipped to 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 4.4% in the third quarter.
"Real GDP growth is expected to soften in fiscal year
2022/23 compared to the previous fiscal year, before picking up
thereafter." Egypt's fiscal year ends on June 30.
(Reporting by Patrick Werr; Editing by Richard Chang and Josie
Kao)
