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All major U.S. stock indexes green, Nasdaq out front
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All S&P sectors advance, led by cons disc
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STOXX Europe 600 closes up at 0.66%
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Dollar, crude, bitcoin gain; gold ~flat
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U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 3.51%
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BEARS STILL KEEP BULLS AT BAY IN LATEST AAII SURVEY (1215 EDT/1615 GMT) Pessimism decreased but remained above average for the sixth consecutive week, while optimism was still unusually low among individual investors in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Both neutral sentiment and bullish sentiment increased. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 1.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but optimism was still at an unusually low level for the sixth consecutive week and the 46th time out of the past 65 weeks. Bullish sentiment was below its historical average of 37.5% for the 69th time out of the past 71 weeks. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 1.7 percentage points to 31.9%. This small increase puts neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.5%. Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 2.8 percentage points to 45.6%. It was the fifth consecutive week and the 44th time out of the past 65 weeks that bearish sentiment is at an unusually high level. Bearish sentiment is also above its historical average of 31.0% for the 66th time out of the past 71 weeks. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) rose by 4.8 percentage points to –23.1% but remains unusually low for the sixth consecutive week. The bull-bear spread is at an unusually low level for the 48th time out of the past 65 weeks. Historically, the S&P 500 index has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually low readings for bullish sentiment and the bull-bear spread.
Similarly, the market benchmark has gone on to realize above-average and above-median returns during the six- and 12-month periods following unusually high readings for bearish sentiment.
(Herbert Lash)
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FRIDAY DATA: PLAY IT COOL (11450 EDT/1545 GMT) A data buffet on Friday delivered a Fed feast - each dish providing fresh evidence of a softening economy and cooling inflation. The Commerce Department's broad-ranging personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report was the main course, so let's skip right to the meat of things: inflation is cooling at a faster pace than economists projected. On a monthly basis, the headline and core (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) PCE price indexes both landed at 0.3%, dropping 30 and 20 basis points, respectively. Year-on-year price growth cooled as well, with the headline shaving off 30 bps to an even 5% and core inching down 10 bps to 4.6%. "Today's release sent a message to investors that inflation is steadily under control, with the Fed seemingly meeting its mandate of price stability," says Peter Essele, head of portfolio management at Commonwealth Financial Network.
The graphic below shows five major U.S. price indicators and how far most of them have yet to fall before Powell & Co will consider busting into the pivot dance: Elsewhere in the PCE report, personal income grew by 0.3%, a tad warmer than consensus, but cleaving January's pace in half, while expenditures plunged to a mere 0.2% from the prior months 2% - suggesting a significant deceleration of consumer demand. "We think consumers will soon run out of runway as income growth softens, savings buffers fall, credit card usage declines and inflation stays high," says Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
The saving rate, or the percentage of disposable income left unspent - a favorite indicator of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as a barometer of consumer expectations - gained 20 bps to 4.6%, bringing it inline with the pre-pandemic "normal." Speaking of consumers, who shoulder about 70% of the U.S. economy on their backs, their collective mood seems to have soured further than originally expected this month. The University of Michigan's (UMich) final take on March consumer sentiment was adjusted downward by 1.4 points to land at 66.3. The "current conditions" component fell a nominal 0.1 point, while expectations - remember the saving rate? - headed further south, dropping by a meaningful 2.3 points. "This month's turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank," says Joanne Hsu, director of UMich's surveys of consumers. "Overall, our data revealed multiple signs that consumers increasingly expect a recession ahead." Regarding the "i-word," near- and long-term inflation expectations fell and rose, respectively, with consumers seeing inflation at 3.6% a year from now and 2.9% five years down the road. Finally, Midwest factory activity contracted this month near a level commonly associated with recession. MNI Indicators' Chicago PMI , while a hair better than expected, was still rather dire at 43.8. A PMI reading below 50 signifies monthly contraction, while a number south of 43 is a recession red flag. "The outlook for manufacturing is uncertain; softer demand and higher borrowing costs are constraints on factory output," says Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "And tighter credit conditions that reduce access to credit could be an additional hurdle going forward." The proof will be in Monday's pudding, when the nationwide ISM PMI data is released. Analysts see that number inching lower to a contractive 47.5. Investors appear to like the data, setting course for a third day in the green. The bellwether S&P 500 is on track for weekly, monthly and quarterly gains.
(Stephen Culp)
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S&P 500 SECTORS IN Q1: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY (1030
EDT/1430 GMT)
The S&P 500 index has had a decent run this
quarter, given that markets weren't looking too hot entering
2023 in the face of both high inflation and interest rates.
But let's not forget the mini-banking crisis in the United
States and Europe, fears of which seem to have subsided in
recent trading sessions, yet were enough do some serious damage
the U.S. market and inadvertently buttress some unloved
candidates.
No surprises that the S&P 500 banks index was the top loser for the quarter, shedding some 14% during Q1, while the financials index came in second with declines of 7%. There were $600 million outflows from financial equity funds this week, according to BofA Global Research, though expectations the turmoil could lead to a slower pace of central bank rate hikes meant funds investing in tech stocks saw $400 million in inflows.
The S&P 500 technology index jumped about 20% in
Q1, and within the sector battered semiconductor stocks were the
biggest winners, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index surging some 27% after recording its worst performance
last year since the Great Financial Crisis.
"Large cap tech stocks are leading the tape due to their dependable cash flows as we head into a slowing economic climate. Lower interest rates provide support for their elevated valuations," said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer at Treasury Partners.
Also worth noting was certain high-dividend paying sectors,
including energy and utilities , were also
among top decliners for the quarter, clocking declines of about
6% and 5% each.
The PHLX Housing index rose about 8% in Q1, while the S&P 500 real estate index , which houses many commercial real estate firms, fell 1.1%.
"We have been less concerned about this in housing because unemployment, which is usually the trigger for forced sales and collapsing house prices, is not expected to rise that sharply," Andrew Burrell, chief property economist at Capital Economics said last week.
"Commercial markets are more vulnerable, most notably offices where home working has changed long-term asset viability."
(Shreyashi Sanyal)
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WALL STREET LIKES THE GOLDILOCKS PCE DATA (1010 EDT/1410 GMT) March is going out like a lamb, with the core PCE index coming in slightly cooler than expected, and equity markets love it.
All major stock indexes on Wall Street were up on Friday, as were the major bourses in Europe, after a mostly in-line to slightly cooler reading
Consumer discretionary led all 11 S&P 500 indices
higher, with no sector in decline.
Small caps , Dow transports and semiconductors rose, as did growth and value stocks.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for
February increased 0.3% month over month after accelerating 0.6%
in January. In the 12 months through February, the PCE price
index advanced 5.0% after rising 5.3% in January.
Core PCE climbed 0.3% after increasing 0.5% in January, and
on a year-on-year basis rose 4.6% last month after gaining 4.7%
in January.
"Overall a lot of this would still line up with a soft
landing. But the unequivocal issue is what's going to happen in
credit, and that's uncertain at this point," said Dec Mullarkey,
managing director of investment strategy and asset allocation at
SLC Management in Boston.
"The Fed still goes ahead with a 25 basis point move when
they meet in May," he said.
Here is a snapshot of market prices in early trading:
(Herbert Lash)
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PUNCH BOWL OR PROHIBITION, THE FED DECIDES (0915 EDT/1315
GMT)
Is the Fed bringing back the punch bowl after inflation
decelerated a bit more on Friday as many stock investors clamor
for, or are policymakers going to declare an era of moderate
Prohibition is in store - in line with glum bond investors?
The yield on two-year Treasury notes , which move
in step with interest rate expectations, slid 7 basis points
after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index
for February was released. Stock futures were edging higher.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins told Bloomberg TV that
PCE, which the U.S. central bank tracks for its 2% inflation
target, was "about what was expected" and that the Fed "still
has more work to do to lower inflation."
PCE increased 0.3% last month after accelerating 0.6% in
January. In the 12 months through February, the PCE price index
advanced 5.0% after rising 5.3% in January.
Core PCE climbed 0.3% after increasing 0.5% in January, and
on a year-on-year basis rose 4.6% last month after gaining 4.7%
in January.
(Herbert Lash)
*****
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