EUROPEAN LUXURY RUNNING OUT OF STEAM? (1121 GMT) European luxury was a hot topic at the beginning of 2023, outperforming the wider market as excitement rose that China's post-Covid reopening could significantly boost demand for high-end products.
But according to UBS analysts, this market interest in "turnaround" stories and away from proven winners could be over with the next raft of Q1 results, which they think will " paint a mixed picture".
"...mixed Q1 results, which could show that an easier comparable base doesn't guarantee stronger growth in China, as well as increasingly weakening U.S. luxury demand, could refocus the market on fundamentals in our view," they write in a research note.
First-quarter numbers may shift investor attention back to "high quality, strong performing
brands," they write, and especially those with incremental pricing opportunities.
Their top picks are Richemont , Hermes and Moncler , which they view as the most balanced, high-quality plays on China re-opening versus ongoing macro risks, and as benefitting from late-cycle pricing. The sector is currently trading at a 125% valuation premium versus the MSCI Europe, comfortably above the five-year average premium of 96%, according to UBS, but the bank says these levels are justified, given the sector's attractive long-term structural positioning.
"However, given the strong ytd performance, we see less upside risk short-term amid mixed Q1 results and a looming US slow-down, with still little visibility on the return of Chinese tourists to Europe," they conclude.
(Lucy Raitano)
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INDUSTRIAL STOCKS DRAG ON STOXX (0840 GMT) The STOXX 600 is down for a third straight day, falling 0.2%, as stubborn inflation and the tricky task facing central banks remains the focus of the week. Utilities stocks are nevertheless providing a lift, up 1.3%, as are telecom stocks , up 0.9%, with the likes of the UK's BT Group and Spain's Cellnex rising 1.4%-1.7%. Healthcare is also outperforming, up 0.9%.
The biggest weights on a sector basis are construction and materials stocks and industrial goods and services , both falling as much as 1.6%.
A survey today showed euro zone recovery picking up pace last month but the upturn was uneven across industries and countries, according to S&P Global's Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
(Lucy Raitano)
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JOLTED MARKETS FRET ABOUT ECONOMY, FED RATE PATH (0743 GMT) Risk sentiment remains fragile as skittish investors fret about a recession after a slew of economic data through the week points to a cooling U.S. economy.
The JOLTS report on Tuesday showed that U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, with traders wagering that the Fed is just about done with its interest rate hikes. Investors raised their bets to a roughly 60% probability of no move following the Fed's May 2-3 meeting, compared to about a 43% chance the day before, based on pricing of interest-rate futures. And yet, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that the U.S. central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. A surprise 50 basis point hike from New Zealand's central bank shocked the Asian market, with kiwi-dollar scaling a two-month peak. Twenty-two of 24 economists in a Reuters poll had forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would raise rates by just 25 basis points. Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the impact of the U.S. banking crisis will be felt for years to come. "The current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come," Dimon wrote in a 43-page annual message to shareholders.
Stock futures indicate a lower open in Europe, with purchasing managers index surveys for the Eurozone, France and Germany later in the day that will showcase the state of economy in Europe. Investors still anticipate few more rate hikes in the region.
A Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed that the U.S. dollar will weaken against most major currencies this year as the interest rate gap with its peers stops widening. In the crypto world, Dogecoin's Shiba Inu dog replaced Twitter's blue bird on Monday as the social media company's logo (and remains there as of last twitter scroll), helping the meme coin add as much as $4 billion to its market value.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
Economic events: S&P Global Service PMI data for Eurozone, France, Germany
(Ankur Banerjee)
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EUROPEAN FUTURES HEAD FOR A NEUTRAL START(0628 GMT)
European futures are hovering either side of unchanged, as inflation jitters stay in focus
while worries about banks remain subdued. Those on the STOXX 50 are down 0.2%, while
FTSE futures and DAX futures are teetering around flat. The same goes for U.S.
futures.
In a shock move, New Zealand's central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis
points to a more than 14-year peak of 5.25% on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the market will be watching closely as UBS seeks to reassure shareholders
that its unexpected takeover of rival Credit Suisse can work.
In company news, the world's biggest chocolate maker Barry Callebaut has appointed a new chief executive and reported a decline in first half sales volumes. French catering and food services group Sodexo has plans to spin-off and list its Benefits & Rewards Services (BRS) business during 2024.
(Lucy Raitano)
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(Lucy Raitano)
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