CEE MARKETS-Crown hits nearly 15-year high, zloty holds near 2023 peak

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
(Updates throughout with crown high) BUDAPEST, April 13 (Reuters) - The Czech crown rose to its highest against the euro since July 2008 as inflation data chimed with the central bank's hawkish tone, while a retreating U.S. dollar helped the Polish zloty reach a 2023 peak. Central European policymakers have been pushing back against market expectations of interest rate cuts coming quickly this year, as they balance still-high inflation with economies weakened by faltering consumer demand. Czech headline inflation remained high in March even as it slowed to a rate of 15.0%, a second-consecutive fall to take it to its lowest since April last year, statistics office data showed on Thursday. The crown was up a quarter of a percent in afternoon trade, trading at 23.284 to the euro and breaking the 23.300 level for the first time in nearly 15 years. "It is a reaction to inflation figures and in combination with hawkish comments from new (central bank) board members," Komercni Banka economist Jaromir Gec said. "Core inflation remains quite sticky." The Czech central bank has maintained the debate over keeping stable policy and a key rate of 7.00%, or raising interest rates if wages accelerate. Two new bank board members were quoted as saying in different media interviews published before the inflation data that rate cuts could not happen until inflation was lower. Market interest rates ticked up, with a 6x9 forward rate agreement (FRA), indicating expected rate changes in half a year, climbing more than 10 basis points as investors reduced bets on the chance of a rate cut in that time. One of the new central bankers, Jan Kubicek, told Hospodarske Noviny in an interview that he did not see a rapid interest rate decrease in the autumn as had been suggested by the yield curve.


WEAKER DOLLAR HELPS In Poland, the zloty rose 0.35% to 4.6375 to the euro to touch its highest since late December as it found support from a weaker dollar. "The currencies of the region are still supported by the upward trend of the euro/dollar, although in our opinion it may take a breather after it reached this year's maximum, and the theme of the outlook for the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB seem to have been temporarily worn out by the markets," Bank Millennium said. The forint , bolstered by the European Union's highest base rate at 13%, was down 0.1% at 374.4 versus the euro, with March inflation data released on Wednesday underpinning views that interest rate cuts were not on the agenda. The National Bank of Hungary "will likely not be able to let up on its hawkish rhetoric anytime soon, which in turn, will be HUF-supportive," Commerzbank said.


CEE SNAPSHO AT


MARKETS T 1348


CET


CURRENC


IES


Latest Previou Daily Change s


bid close change in 2023 EURCZK Czech <EURCZK 23.2840 23.3440 +0.26% +3.75% = crown =>
EURHUF Hungary <EURHUF 374.400 374.000 -0.11% +6.69% = forint => 0 0
EURPLN Polish <EURPLN 4.6375 4.6535 +0.35% +1.12% = zloty =>
EURRON Romanian <EURRON 4.9438 4.9380 -0.12% -0.03% = leu =>
EURRSD Serbian <EURRSD 117.230 117.300 +0.06% +0.06% = dinar => 0 0


Note: calcula 1800


daily ted CET


change from



Latest Previou Daily Change s


close change in 2023 .PX Prague 1406.55 1402.32 +0.30% +17.04 00 % .BUX Budapest 42860.2 43375.4 -1.19% -2.13% 7 3
.WIG20 Warsaw <.WIG20 1830.43 1816.28 +0.78% +2.14% >
.BETI Buchares 12468.6 12434.4 +0.28% +6.90% t 8 3
.SBITO Ljubljan <.SBITO 1233.88 1230.53 +0.27% +17.65 P a P> % .BELEX Belgrade <.BELEX 880.52 870.24 +1.18% +6.78% 15 15>
.SOFIX Sofia <.SOFIX 614.83 611.57 +0.53% +2.22% >



Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republic
CZ2YT= 2-year <CZ2YT= 5.8100 0.0490 +302bp +4bps RR RR> s
CZ5YT= 5-year <CZ5YT= 5.2180 0.1530 +282bp +13bps RR RR> s
CZ10YT <CZ10YT 4.7440 0.1030 +236bp +8bps =RR 10-year =RR> s


Poland
PL2YT= 2-year <PL2YT= 6.1690 -0.0900 +338bp -10bps RR RR> s
PL5YT= 5-year <PL5YT= 6.2360 0.0620 +383bp +4bps RR RR> s
PL10YT <PL10YT 6.2520 0.0280 +387bp +0bps =RR 10-year =RR> s


FORWARD


3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech <CZKFRA 7.21 6.97 6.31 7.18 Rep ><PRIBO


R=>


Hungary <HUFFRA 15.45 13.77 12.42 16.31 ><BUBOR


=>


Poland <PLNFRA 6.90 6.81 6.48 6.90 ><WIBOR


=>


Note: are for


FRA ask


quotes prices



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(Reporting by Gergely Szakacs, Boldizsar Gyori, Alan Charlish, and Jason Hovet; Editing by Christina Fincher, Kirsten Donovan)


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