The currency made marginal gains last week to rise for a fourth consecutive week amid a softer dollar. For the day, the rupee is expected to trade between 81.75-82.05, a state-run bank dealer said. The dollar index on Monday extended gains to 101.750, after falling to a one-year low of 100.78 last week. U.S. 2-year bond yield rose above 4% levels again. While U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March, so-called core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, slipped just 0.3% last month, data released on Friday showed. This sent the expectations of an additional 25 basis points (bps) hike at the Fed's May 2-3 meeting to 81%, up from around 70% for most of last week, futures showed. Investors are pricing in the probability that the Fed will need to cut rates later this year on an expected slowdown, but the U.S. economy remains relatively strong, making trading choppy. "The landing zone for the Fed's terminal rate is not far now and reports of a softening outlook will further support our weaker dollar view," said Barclays analysts in a note. "We expect measured gains in the rupee... Strong macro fundamentals confirmed by PMIs last week should help sustain foreign investor demand for equities."
Foreign institutional investors have been net buyers of about $800 million worth of Indian shares this month. In a data-light week, markets will await minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's April monetary policy meeting due on Thursday.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 81.99;
onshore one-month forward premium at 11 paise
** USD/INR NSE April futures settled on Friday at 81.9050
** USD/INR April forward premium is 2.8 paise
** Dollar index up at 101.7
** Brent crude futures at $86.2 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.51%
** SGX Nifty nearest-month futures down 0.5% at 17,782
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $262.2 mln
worth of Indian shares on April 12
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $1.2 mln worth
of Indian bonds on April 12
(Reporting by Anushka Trivedi; Editing by Sohini Goswami)
