April 1 (Reuters) - The labels "dove" and "hawk" have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
Now, with inflation easing and the labor market still strong but cooling, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
Coming out of the March 19-20 policy meeting, the vibe on the Fed's policymaking panel is slightly more hawkish than it had been, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noting he had scaled back his rate-cut expectations. Still, the majority remains centrist. For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a look at how officials view the outlook for Fed policy and how best to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic. We include rate-path expectations for those policymakers who have specified them.
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: When it comes to a rate cut, "I think we're close, give us a couple of meetings." Feb 22, 2024
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "We can and we will be careful about this decision because we can be." March 29, 2024
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: Now expects one rate cut this year, one less than previously. "I'm definitely less confident than I was in December." March 22, 2024
Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "I will remain cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy." March 7, 2024
John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: Three rate cuts in 2024 is "a reasonable kind of starting point." (Feb 28, 2024) "I do expect us to cut interest rates later this year ... there's no urgency to do that." Feb 29, 2024
Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, 2024 voter*: Three rate cuts in 2024 "feels about right." (Feb 29, 2024) "My base case is that when we do begin to move rates down, we will do so at a gradual pace." March 7, 2024
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: "If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back our policy restraint later this year." Feb 22, 2024
Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: "I'm still hopeful inflation is going to come down and if inflation normalizes, then it makes the case for why you want to normalize rates, but to me it starts with inflation." March 1, 2024
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: "It's very early to say whether we end up with a 'soft landing' or not." Feb 14, 2024
Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "With inflation running above target, labor markets tight and demand showing considerable momentum, my own view is that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy." Feb 26, 2024
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "There is no rush to cut the policy rate." March 27, 2024
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: Penciled in two 2024 rate cuts in December. "It seems like at a base case I'd be where I was in December, or potentially one fewer, but I haven't decided." March 6, 2024
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "Fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time." March 25, 2024
Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: I'm really not seeing any urgency to make any additional adjustments at this time." Feb 9, 2024
Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: "I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market." March 1, 2024
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: Three rate cuts this year is "a reasonable baseline." (Feb 16, 2024) "Our goal was always this: restore price stability as gently as we can; we are on a path to do that, but we're not giving up until we're done." March 6, 2024.
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: At the median Fed expectation for three rate cuts in 2024. "We're in an uncertain state, but it doesn't feel to me like we've changed fundamentally the story that we're getting back to target." March 25, 2024
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: Baseline expectation for 2024 rate cuts is "similar" to the median Fed policymaker expectation for three rate cuts. (Feb 8, 2024) "I believe it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy later this year." Feb 28, 2024
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred last July. Projections released on Dec. 13 showed no policymakers believe rates should go any higher this year, and a majority see them dropping by at least 75 basis points. Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed's president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
*Mester hits the Fed banks' mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao
