Cochilco on Tuesday lowered its forecast for the average price of copper in 2024 to $4.18 per pound, down from a May estimate of $4.30, citing factors such as economic weakness in top consumers.
The commission maintained its 2025 average price projection at $4.25 per pound.
The 2024 adjustment, Cochilco said in a report, was related to “macroeconomic weakness in the main consuming countries” and “the postponement of the start of the monetary policy rate reduction cycle in the United States”.
The commission also cited “geopolitical uncertainty and the accumulation of inventories in the Asian market,” but noted prices would remain above $4.00 per pound – a key level it expects to be maintained over the next decade.
Cochilco also said that Chile’s copper production is expected to increase by 3% in 2024 from the previous year to 5.41 million metric tons, short of the previously estimated 5.5 million tons.
In 2025, production would grow 6% to 5.7 million tons, Cochilco added. The Andean country is the world’s largest copper producer.
The commission added that the refined copper market is anticipated to be roughly balanced in 2024 and 2025.
“It is estimated to be in a slight deficit in 2024, with 12,000 tons, and surplus in 2025, with 13,000 tons,” markets coordinator Victor Garay said. “This forecast implies a relevant change from the previous estimate, when a deficit was foreseen.”
(Reporting by Fabian Andres Cambero; Writing by Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Gabriel Araujo)
