China’s coal imports could drop by up to 100 million metric tons in 2025, an official at a major industry group said, potentially putting further pressure on key price benchmarks already trading at multi-year lows.
Imports by the world’s largest consumer, importer and producer of the fossil fuel rose to a record high of 542.7 million metric tons in 2024, as lower international coal prices spurred buyers to substitute imports for domestic supply.
Shipments could fall by 50 million to 100 million tons in 2025, Xuegang Li, vice president at China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, told the Coaltrans China conference on Wednesday.
Coal imports were 8% lower in the five months to the end of May, official data showed. A decline of 100 million tons this year would amount to a drop of 18.4% annually.
“The decrease in China’s coal imports in 2025 will exceed expectations,” Li said, without indicating how much he expected imports of thermal coal and metallurgical coal to fall.
Thermal coal is mainly used in power generation, while metallurgical coal is used in steelmaking processes.
The Chinese government’s recent directives to coal-fired power plants to reduce imports and stockpile more of the domestically mined fuel could put further pressure on prices.
Indonesian and Australian coal indices reflecting grades preferred by Chinese buyers have been trending lower since October 2023, with the Indonesian grade falling 25% and the Australian grade 37% in that period.
Domestic coal production is expected to increase by 70 to 80 million tons this year after falling in 2024, which would contribute to lower import requirements, Li said.
Rising renewable output has also helped China progressively cut dependence on thermal coal, which accounts for the bulk of coal consumption in the world’s second largest economy.
The share of coal in power generation fell to a record low of 54% in April, with the share of wind and solar in overall output rising to 26%, data from energy think-tank Ember showed.
“Looking ahead, coal production will increasingly be constrained by capacity limit,” Li said, adding that China’s total coal consumption could peak by 2027 or 2028.
(By Sam Li, Lewis Jackson and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Rachna Uppal)
