Strengths
- The best-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 2.41%. Michael Ball, technical analyst at Bloomberg, notes that the gold-silver ratio is at a technical crossroads, caught between gold’s consolidation and silver’s relative strength. While gold has stalled in the $3,200–$3,450 range—supported by steady ETF flows and central bank holdings—silver’s outperformance is driven by cyclical and industrial demand, positioning it as a leveraged play on global growth.
- Gold ETF holdings are up 289 tons year-to-date (+11% since end-2024), on pace for the strongest year since 2020 after four years of declines. Silver ETF holdings are also up 2,362 tons YTD (+11%), showing similar momentum. Gold Fields’ first-half profit more than doubled, driven by a 25% rise in production and higher gold prices. The company closed $4 billion in acquisitions over the past year, with more accretive consolidation likely.
- Abaxx launched its physically deliverable Gold Singapore Futures (GKS) contract on June 12, 2025, with daily volumes rising from 200 lots in June to consistently over 1,000 lots in August. The company also launched Abaxx Spot, a dedicated platform for secure kilobar gold trading in Singapore, expanding access to physically allocated gold.
Weaknesses
- Gold was the worst-performing precious metal of the week, though still up a modest 1.01%. A MarketWatch analysis highlights an $863 billion gap between the U.S. government’s official gold valuation ($42.22/oz) and market prices near $3,400, fueling speculation about revaluation or even a strategic Bitcoin reserve. While gold was set for a second weekly loss, it rallied nearly 1% Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible September rate cut, underscoring how shifting monetary policy could lift bullion further.
- Since peaking at $3,500.10/oz in April 2025, gold has traded sideways within a narrowing range, forming a triangle pattern. Prices are now over halfway through the pattern, which typically breaks 61.8–74.6% of the way through. Due to the pattern’s narrowness and the number of converging swings, Bank of America suggests a breakout could be imminent.
- Canaccord reports Vault Minerals’ FY25 post-tax profit of A$237 million missed consensus estimates (A$266 million), largely due to a A$43 million income tax expense and slightly higher depreciation.
Opportunities
- South Africa is set to open its first new underground gold mine in 15 years—an increasingly rare event in a country that was once the world’s top gold producer. West Wits Mining Ltd. plans to begin production next year at Qala Shallows, located on the western edge of Johannesburg, the city founded during the gold rush following the 1880s discovery of the Witwatersrand reef, according to Bloomberg.
- According to UBS, the DCF-implied valuation discount for South African gold miners has narrowed by 5%, with equities now pricing in an 11% discount to spot gold, down from 16%. AngloGold remains the cheapest, discounting a gold price of $3,000/oz, while Harmony appears most expensive, at $3,300/oz. Based on 12-month forward EV/EBITDA multiples, the sector overall is pricing in gold at around $3,100/oz versus the current spot price of $3,500.
- RBC reports that with Artemis delivering early-stage production at Blackwater as planned, continued ramp-up and strong margins could drive outperformance. A decision on optimizing or expanding the plant by year-end may act as a value-accretive catalyst.
Threats
- Bank of America forecasts a significant palladium oversupply for the next several years. While some minor mine supply cuts have occurred, they’re not enough to restore market balance. Northam management also expressed concern, calling palladium their “least favorite” metal due to pressure from Chinese EV adoption.
- Gold bulls may be disappointed as the metal has stalled since its April high above $3,500 an ounce, despite ongoing price target upgrades from banks. Hedge funds trimmed long positions in gold and silver last week, and options flows remain cautious, with defensive skew and low volatility, according to Bloomberg.
- UBS is becoming more selective on gold miners after strong outperformance. They favor Barrick, Endeavour, Kinross, and Franco-Nevada, while maintaining Neutral ratings on Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Fresnillo.
