CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 12:53 p.m. EDT 4 September 2025 $3,609.50 (Basis the December 2025 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,640
Initial Timeframe: 4 September 2025 to 12 September 2025
Stop Loss: $3,573
CPM is using the active December Comex futures price, which is approximately $46 higher than spot gold in the New York market.
The gold price reached a record $3,640.10 yesterday, 3 September. Today prices retreated to bottom out at $3,573.70 before recovering. Gold prices have risen nearly $300 since touching a recent low of $3,353.40 on 20 August, a little more than two weeks ago. Much of the increase has been in the past four trading days, since 28 August.
In the last Trade Recommendation, on 12 August, we wrote that it would not be surprising to see gold reach $3,600 in September or October. This level has been reached sooner than we expected. Gold prices have risen more than $100 since the start of this week.
The various factors supportive of gold prices appear to continue to expand. Market participants appear to be reacting quicker than in the past to buy and sell, and there has been a surge in trading volumes when prices move sharply.
This Trade Recommendation only touches briefly on some of the factors that have helped push gold prices to record highs. The recent rally to a large extent has been sparked by expectations of reduced interest rates, couple with heightened domestic U.S. and global political concerns. Over the past several days China has hosted an event attended by many political leaders, culminating with a massive military parade on Wednesday 3 September.
Other factors that have been ongoing include concerns about inflationary and recessionary conditions building in the United States and elsewhere. There is a whole host of data that has been moving markets sharply up and down. Market participants continue to wait for evidence of the full effects of U.S. tariffs on economic activity. Tariff policy, however, continues to change as the Trump administration goes back on forth with tariffs on countries and products. In addition, the Trump administration is using the U.S. military for issues it deems urgent for both domestic and international policy.
The next economic gauge to watch will be the U.S. employment data released tomorrow. This could have greater sway on equity markets and more. The FOMC meeting also will occur in the middle of this month on 16 – 17 September, at which the Fed is expected to reduce the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%. Subsequent FOMC meetings will be held on 28 – 29 October, and then 9 – 10 December.
Providing ultra short-term trading recommendations has become increasingly difficult in the current volatile environment. Regardless of the direction in these Trade Recommendations, it has been CPM’s long standing recommendation for years to maintain a long gold position, especially in current times. It also has been the recommendation to hedge this long gold position, noting that there can be a $100 to $200 sell-off in prices.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
