Gold surged to a fresh record high above $3,579/oz today, with December futures pushing past $3,620, after a stunning downside surprise in the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change data. Payrolls showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, compared with expectations for 75,000 and a previous reading of 79,000. This shortfall marks a major deterioration in labor market momentum and triggered an immediate repricing of monetary policy expectations. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.3%, in line with forecasts but above the prior 4.2%, further underscoring cracks in employment dynamics. For gold, this mix of weak job creation and a rising unemployment rate was a perfect catalyst, as traders shifted rapidly toward more aggressive Federal Reserve easing bets.
Gold Chart: XTB
September Rate Cut
We view this reaction as a clear example of gold’s role as a monetary hedge. The weaker-than-expected payrolls pushed real yields lower and pressured the dollar, both of which are decisive levers for bullion pricing. Traders had already been pricing in a near-certainty of a September rate cut, but today’s shocking jobs miss has shifted the conversation from “if” to “how much.” Market chatter now centers on whether the Fed will be forced to cut deeper than anticipated at its September meeting, or whether multiple cuts before year-end may be necessary to stabilize labor conditions and growth expectations. This dovish pivot has magnified gold’s appeal, drawing both institutional flows and safe-haven demand into the metal at record levels.
Trump Tweets: Do or Die
In the coming hours, we are highly likely to hear from President Trump whose narrative now is going to be even more tough. He is certainly not going to be happy with the unemployment rate ticking higher and the US economy creating less jobs. For him, this event is going to present another major opportunity to not only blame the Fed but to exert maximum amount of pressure on the Fed. We think, the message now is going to be “do or die”
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, the focus now turns not only to the Fed’s September meeting but also to the tone of its commentary. Markets will scrutinize whether Chair Powell signals a one-off, shallow cut or opens the door to a deeper and potentially repeated easing cycle. With today’s NFP shock, the latter is becoming the more credible scenario, particularly as inflation expectations remain contained and labor market weakness intensifies. For gold, this sets the stage for continued strength. Having broken through prior records, traders will watch whether the metal can sustain momentum above the $3,600 mark and target the next psychological milestone near $3,650–$3,700.
Conclusion
In our analysis, the near-term ecosystem for gold is defined by a powerful dual driver: labor market weakness fostering dovish policy expectations and Trump’s geopolitical and tariff agenda sustaining a structural risk premium. Together, these dynamics have created the conditions for a historic rally in bullion. Unless upcoming data show a sudden reversal in labor conditions or the Fed delivers unexpectedly hawkish guidance, gold appears well-positioned to consolidate its record-breaking run and potentially extend toward higher levels as investors seek safety, liquidity, and protection against both economic and political uncertainty.