Sep 23, 2025
1. Small rate cuts are helping the economy and the stock market (slightly), but the largest moves are in gold, silver, and the miners. Why?
2. Well, the big global theme right now is a loss of confidence in government’s ability to pay what it owes. That’s creating loss of confidence in fiat itself. Perhaps this statement sums it up best:
3. It’s a golden month and a golden year!
4. With gold hitting $3780 this morning, my $3800 target zone is basically acquired.
5. So, what’s next? In a strong market, gold will overshoot technical targets and that’s likely going to be the case now.
6. I projected an April to October “cyclical inversion” where the summer doldrums become a summer barnburner of a rally, and of course that’s exactly what has transpired.
7. Gold now likely enters the “blowoff” phase of the inversion. Investors need to be prepared for prices as high as $5000 before this fantastic move against vile fiat gets a needed pause.
8. In terms of time, it’s another 5 weeks to the end of October, which means gold would only have to rally an average of about $200/week to reach the $5000 mark.
9. In this blowoff move, gold could easily surge $100, $200, or even $300 on some trading days… meaning a rally to $5000 could be achieved very easily.
10. There’s enormous inverse H&S action in play.
11. It’s likely that silver pushes above $50 before the April-October cyclical inversion rally ends and a multi-month dip begins.
12. As noted, the Fed’s rate cuts are creating a loss of confidence amongst global central banks… and now for money managers too.
13. The bottom interest rates line: Long-term bond rates are rising while the Fed cuts short-term rates and Fed chair Jay says he plans to do two more cuts this year!
14. More cuts will create even more loss of confidence at a time when money managers want higher rates to hold significant amounts of questionable government fiat.
15. The only time India’s savvy citizens were a net exporter of gold was around the time of the highs of the 1970s market.
16. Here’s the exciting news about these “titans of ton”: They are now aggressive buyers into the current price strength. Their action is in perfect sync with my blowoff scenario.
17. What about the soaring miners? While the coming multi-month pause for gold could see that mighty metal give back about 20% of its 2024-2025 gain…
18. Even at the lows of that dip many junior explorers will be potential cash cows and outrageously undervalued.
19. Junior mine stock investing isn’t for everyone, especially with size, but as this gargantuan gold bull era rollout continues, these miners look set to outperform everything!
20. The cycle inversion rally should see GDX push over the neckline as silver pushes above $50.
21. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, it can be argued that gold’s C wave began in the year 2015, but the C wave for the miners only started in 2024.
22. In a nutshell, the miners are cash cows if gold is $3500 and they are even bigger cash cows at $4000-$5000.
23. Amateur investors want to know where to sell and the answer is: Light trading profits can be booked into this strength, but the core should be held with an iron hand.
24. The bottom line is that the final Elliott E wave likely ends in 1929… but then a new up cycle should begin that very same year. It’s not just a bull market. It’s a China and India-led bull era and the golden party should continue for the next 200 years!
Thanks!
