Bitcoin Technical Outlook
Bitcoin closed green yesterday, nearly touching the TBO Fast line at $113,940, despite a slightly lower low within the daily TBO Cloud. This “bearish consolidation” phase could be giving way to reversal momentum, as evidenced by the 4-hour chart’s TBT Bullish Divergence and higher lows on the 4-hour RSI. A sustained push above $114,000 today would confirm this nascent bullish momentum and set the stage for broader market strength.
Ethereum and Stablecoin Positioning
Ethereum remains under pressure, with RSI stuck below 25 since Monday’s crash and a local low forming as price tests TBO support at $4,060. A rebound here could target $4,500 in the coming days, but failure risks deepening the downturn and dragging altcoins lower. Combined stablecoin dominance spiked to 6.57% and was rejected, while daily RSI fell back below overbought territory at 70. A developing 4-hour TBT Bearish Divergence suggests stablecoin dominance may roll over, which would be bullish for both BTC and alts.
Cryptocurrency Market Dominance Shifts
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) printed a daily TBO Close Short, a bullish reversal signal that could halt its downtrend, potentially lifting BTC.D toward the weekly TBO Fast line at 60.53%. Such a move would likely pressure altcoin valuations in the short term. SOL.D shows support just under 3% with an open daily TBO Close Long, while OTHERS.D confirmed a second daily TBO Close Long—a bearish warning for broader altcap performance. However, the global TOTALES.D chart displayed an RSI reset and higher low, indicating a potential recovery in overall crypto market participation. The TOTALE50/ETH ratio suggests mid- to low-cap altcoins are outperforming ETH but remain challenged against BTC.
Traditional Markets and Commodities Impact
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) printed a daily TBO Close Short above support, signaling a bullish reversal that historically correlates with equity pullbacks. Despite this, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq maintain bullish structures on daily and weekly charts, with only a minor pullback in recent sessions. In Asia, the Nikkei and Hang Seng remain constructive, while the Shanghai Composite shows bearish divergences. In commodities, WTI and Brent oil each printed TBO Close Shorts, and UKOIL has generated four such signals since August, warranting caution. Gold holds above $3,700 but shows RSI exhaustion after a lower high, mirrored by silver’s similar setup.
Technical Highlights on Select Altcoins
Among individual altcoins, SOL has stabilized at historical TBO support near $209, though OBV remains bearish. LINK and other mid-caps printed recent 4-hour TBT Bullish Divergences, while HYPE confirmed an RSI reset and volume above its MA—suggesting a corrective bounce back to its TBO Fast line. AVAX shows a daily TBT Bearish Divergence despite a rising TBO Slow line. MNT is on the verge of a second 4-hour TBO Close Long, and FLR delivered a surprise breakout on heavy volume. XDC features multiple daily TBT Divergence clusters, IMX executed a springboard bounce off its TBO Fast line, PUMP risks a breakdown below its 0.786 Fib level, and FARTCOIN remains under bearish pressure. ASTER is undergoing a short-term Fibonacci-based pullback but may resume its rally once consolidation completes.
Outlook and Strategy
Overall, shifting dominance metrics in favor of Bitcoin suggest altcoins will face short-term headwinds even as BTC builds reversal momentum. Traders should monitor key TBO and TBT signals, maintaining defensive positions in vulnerable altcaps while remaining poised to capitalize on confirmed breakouts. A decisive move above critical Bitcoin levels could ignite the next broad-market recovery, with altcoins following once BTC’s bullish bias is firmly established.
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